(Economic Observation) How can China achieve a stable energy transition towards "dual carbon"?

　　China News Service, Beijing, November 16 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, China's economy is advancing along a green and low-carbon road.

In this process, how to achieve a safe and stable transformation of the energy system is a major challenge.

On the 16th, many experts pointed out at the China News Service Forum "Energy China" that peaking carbon requires the power system to play a key role, overcome short-term or instantaneous disturbances, and adhere to the direction of low-carbon transition.

　　The power industry is well-known as a big carbon emitter.

Brent Wanner, head of the Power Outlook Department of the International Energy Agency, said that in the net-zero emission roadmap, the power industry should be the first industry and sector to achieve net-zero emissions, so that the entire economy can be fully economical. Achieve net zero within the range.

Achieving net zero emissions requires global power sector investment to triple before 2030, and coordination of grid construction plans.

　　Li Jian, chief engineer of the State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., said that building a new power system is a realistic requirement that needs to be urgently faced in the energy transition.

This is a staged long-term process. In order to achieve a smooth transition of goals, the flexibility and safety of the power system need to be improved in this process to cope with the potential impact of changes in the energy structure on the safety and stability of the power system.

　　With the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal, a consensus has been formed in China to build a new power system with new energy as the mainstay.

However, in the process of transformation, "the ship is in trouble turning around" is often a problem that must be faced.

　　Zhou Dadi, an academic consultant of the China Energy Research Society and former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said bluntly that China's power system has maintained rapid growth over the past 30 years, and it is currently in the same position in terms of power installed capacity, total power generation, power transmission system construction and scale. In the forefront of the world.

It can face a huge transformation. To transform from a large-scale centralized power system based on fossil fuels to a zero-carbon power system, many of the advantages of the past have also become obstacles to some extent.

　　But he also pointed out that at present, China is in an internationally advanced position in nuclear power, hydropower, new energy power generation technology and installed capacity, and new energy consumption.

In particular, renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics and energy storage batteries rank among the forefront in the world, and it can be said that they are leading the development of new energy.

At the same time, based on the rapid technological progress and large-scale manufacturing capabilities of photovoltaic, wind power, and energy storage systems, China has great potential for a low-carbon transition.

　　In this context, Wang Yu, a senior engineer at the General Institute of Hydropower and Water Conservancy Planning and Design, believes that China's new energy is expected to achieve leapfrog development.

During the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" period, new energy is expected to increase by an average of 100 million kilowatts per year.

By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy power generation is expected to exceed 1 billion kilowatts, accounting for 30% of installed capacity; in 2030, the cumulative installed capacity of new energy power generation is expected to reach 1.5 billion kilowatts, accounting for 40% of installed capacity, surpassing coal power to become the first Great power supply.

　　It is worth mentioning that some time ago, power cuts in some parts of China triggered social concerns about the winter energy supply. Some voices linked this phenomenon to the "dual carbon" target and related measures.

　　According to Zou Ji, CEO of the Energy Foundation and President of China, the phenomenon of “power shortage” is not caused by the “dual-carbon” goal, but mainly because of the skyrocketing coal prices.

Under the epidemic, many countries urgently adopted quantitative easing monetary policies to rescue the market, and the prices of international bulk commodities such as oil, natural gas, ores with financial attributes or dollar-denominated objects soared.

Coal is an alternative commodity for oil and gas, and international coal prices have also risen accordingly, which in turn affects China's coal prices.

　　Zhou Dadi also pointed out that the recent "shortage of electricity" phenomenon is actually a problem of straightening out electricity and coal prices.

When the price was rationalized, including the official government's administrative intervention to stop the "speculative skyrocket" in the market, thermal coal resumed to a high level of coal storage.

This shows that the above phenomenon is entirely a problem of market scheduling and reasonable market management, rather than a problem of production capacity or "lack of coal" and "lack of thermal power capacity". Therefore, reasonable structural adjustments to electricity prices will be made in the future.

　　Talking about how to coordinate the positioning of coal power under the dual background of ensuring supply and reducing emissions, Yuan Jiahai, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of North China Electric Power University, believes that the dominant position of coal power is slowly weakening in the near and mid-term, and coal power is based on the premise of stabilizing the base load. Transform into electric power sources and gradually realize the replacement of incremental coal power generation by new energy sources.

In the medium and long term, coal power will retreat from the main power source and shift to regulated power and supplementary power. The focus is shifting to make up for short-term peak resource shortages and provide flexible support to realize the gradual replacement of coal power generation stock with new energy sources, and eventually new energy sources will become the main power source. .

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