Economic Observation: China's consumption continues to pick up, and later growth is supported

(Economic Observation) China's consumption continues to rebound, and late growth is supported

　　China News Agency, Beijing, November 16 (Reporter Liu Liang) In the context of the recent spread of the new crown epidemic, China's economy continued to recover in October this year, and the resilience of consumption recovery continued to show.

Based on various consumption indicators, the analysis here points out that China's consumption growth is still well supported in the later period.

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China a few days ago, in October, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods was RMB 4,045.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. The growth rate was 0.5% faster than the previous month and rebounded for two consecutive months.

　　Where does the momentum for continued consumption growth come from?

Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out at the press conference that there are three main reasons: first, the steady recovery of commodity sales; second, the internal driving force of consumption is still relatively sufficient; The rapid development of online consumption drives the expansion of consumption scale.

　　The continued upward momentum of consumption is gratifying, but the current international environment is complex and changeable, and the global epidemic is still spreading. Recently, domestic epidemics have spread more frequently, and the restrictive effect on some contact-type consumption is still relatively obvious.

　　In this regard, Li Qilin, chief economist of Hongta Securities, believes that in terms of the number of subway trips and the number of newly diagnosed people, the epidemic situation in November was more severe than last month, and residents' travel was more obviously affected by the epidemic.

In this context, the impact of the epidemic on consumption, especially service consumption, will appear in November.

　　Looking forward to the next two months of this year, how will Chinese consumption go?

Experts believe that stable prices and adequate supply in China have created a good environment for later consumption growth.

　　Guo Liyan, director and researcher of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics, pointed out that China’s grain production has reaped a bumper harvest, the total supply of vegetables is sufficient, and the supply of goods and services in the consumer sector is abundant. CPI has a solid foundation for maintaining stable operation. The expected annual price target is expected. Smoothly achieved.

At the same time, as coal prices have fallen sharply and the tight supply of some industrial products has eased, it is expected that the PPI may have peaked in October, and the growth rate in the later period is expected to gradually narrow.

　　In the face of the outbreak of the epidemic, China's accumulated experience and capabilities in fighting the epidemic are also increasing.

Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, said that since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has adopted a number of policy measures to ensure consumption growth, including the development of various contactless economies and e-commerce. These measures include Help minimize the impact of the epidemic on consumption.

　　Officials also revealed more confidence in later consumption growth.

Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, we will do a good job in the prevention and control of the autumn and winter epidemics, scientifically coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, maintain the lives and health of the people, and actively increase market supply to ensure that residents' consumption needs are met.

　　Fu Linghui emphasized that the resilience of the current Chinese consumer market is sufficient, the scale of consumption has expanded, the consumption structure has been upgraded, and the development trend of consumption model innovation has not changed.

As the economy recovers, employment expands, residents' income increases, and social security is gradually improved, consumption growth is still well supported.

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