On the way to climate neutrality, Germany is relying on the use of hydrogen, but has hardly made any progress so far.

According to a new report, the capacities of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels, the e-fuels, will still be low until 2030.

80 percent of the projects already announced for 2023 do not have a final investment decision, says Falko Ueckerdt, who heads the National Energy Transition team at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PIK.

It is likely that projects will at least be delayed.

"Who see an industry that is ready to invest, but needs the political framework to invest," says Ueckerdt.

Jan Hauser

Editor in business.

  • Follow I follow

There is much hope in a hydrogen economy that can be used to store energy. The incumbent Minister of Economic Affairs, Peter Altmaier, speaks of green hydrogen as a key energy carrier of the future for climate neutrality. Whether the SPD, the Greens, the FDP or the Union: in the election campaign everyone campaigned for green hydrogen, which is produced without carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the parties disagree on how much gray hydrogen should also be used for a transitional period, which is created by natural gas and emits CO2, or blue hydrogen, the CO2 of which is captured and stored. So far, the Greens have been stricter and the FDP more open to alternatives. Environmentalists fear that, apart from green hydrogen, fossil structures will be preserved.

Ueckerdt and ten other authors of the Kopernikus project Ariadne have examined how a hydrogen economy can be successfully established.

The organization will publish its report "Get started despite uncertainties: cornerstones of an adaptable hydrogen strategy" on Tuesday, and it will be presented to the FAZ in advance.

The researchers consider hydrogen from fossil sources to be conceivable as a temporary bridging technology - accompanied by certification, regulation and the corresponding pricing of emissions.

This is the only way to ensure that greenhouse gas emissions are actually reduced and not just shifted.

A “blue hydrogen bridge” could at least enable an early change to hydrogen and also more climate-friendly hydrogen.

The price of CO2 has to rise even more

How profitable the use of hydrogen is depends largely on the price of CO2, government subsidies and technical progress, which can reduce costs. The development therefore has many uncertainties, which also makes investments unsafe. A switch from natural gas to hydrogen in buildings and industry and from kerosene to e-kerosene in air traffic has not yet been competitive. According to the report, this may not be expected by 2030 with a CO2 price of 100 to 200 euros per ton alone. The fact that the price rises sharply is necessary for the change in industry, buildings and traffic. Technology-specific regulation and funding are also inevitable, according to the study.

The authors advise vigorously developing the supply and, above all, the import of green hydrogen and e-fuels. Initially, the scarce hydrogen should concentrate on individual areas. They speak of “no-regret applications”, in which direct electrification is ruled out: Hydrogen should therefore quickly find its way into the ammonia and steel industry, as should e-fuels in the petrochemical industry, in long-distance air traffic and shipping. "There is no avoiding the use of hydrogen and e-fuels," says co-author Benjamin Pfluger, who heads the Integrated Energy Infrastructures department at the Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG.

The researchers advise that politicians should pursue an adaptable hydrogen strategy, promote unsafe areas and constantly monitor technological progress. In addition to IEG and PIK, they work at the Technical University of Darmstadt, the German Aerospace Center and the Paul Scherrer Institute. The use of hydrogen is to be gradually expanded once the costs and quantities are clear. For e-fuels, a change for combustion technologies is still possible at short notice after 2035, if their production progresses quickly. If the amount is not enough, however, there is a risk of higher costs.

In various scenarios, hydrogen will make up a maximum of 35 percent of energy in Germany in 2045.

“This shows that hydrogen cannot replace everything centrally,” says Ueckerdt.

This decade is initially about the expansion of local eco-energy.

“By 2030 we have a decade of electrification,” says Pfluger.

Renewable energies must be tripled for this, electric cars should dominate new registrations and around 5 million new heat pumps should be installed.