Accelerate the improvement of the quality of urbanization of the agricultural transfer population
Shi Yulong
A new round of national new-type urbanization planning is about to start. How do you understand the role of new-type urbanization in high-quality economic and social development?
From now on, this edition invites well-known domestic experts and scholars to write articles for readers.
my country is still in the rapid development stage of urbanization. More rural residents increase their income levels by transferring employment and enjoy higher-quality public services by converting them to citizens. On the one hand, it will promote the continuous expansion of urban consumer groups, continuous upgrading of consumption structure, and consumption potential. Continuous release, on the other hand, also brings huge investment demand for urban infrastructure, public service facilities and residential construction.
Improving the quality of urbanization of the agricultural transfer population and further exerting the role of domestic demand as the basic driving force of economic development is not only an objective need to cope with external risks and challenges, and to stabilize my country's economic fundamentals, but also an inevitable requirement to meet the people's growing needs for a better life, and it will speed up An important measure to build a new development pattern.
Statistics show that from 2012 to 2020, the permanent population of urban residents in my country has increased from 710 million to 900 million, an average annual increase of 21 million. During the same period, the total retail sales of consumer goods has increased from 21 trillion yuan to 39 trillion yuan, and the whole society is fixed. Asset investment increased from 37 trillion yuan to 52 trillion yuan.
For every 1 percentage point increase in the urbanization rate, the total retail sales of consumer goods will increase by about 1.7 trillion yuan, and the fixed asset investment of the whole society will increase by about 1.5 trillion yuan.
The urbanization of the migrant population from agriculture has effectively promoted consumption.
First, the urbanization of the migrant population from agriculture has expanded consumer groups and increased consumer demand.
When a rural resident is transformed into a citizen, the income level and consumption ability will increase simultaneously. At the current level, the consumption demand will increase at least 13,000 yuan per year.
Based on the current situation, the annual increase of 21 million urban populations will increase the direct consumption demand of about 280 billion yuan each year, which is equivalent to 12.5% of the average annual increase in the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society.
Second, the urbanization of the migrant population from agriculture has improved the consumption structure and promoted consumption upgrades.
In 2020, the Engel coefficients of urban and rural residents will be 29.2% and 32.7% respectively.
Compared with rural residents, the diversified consumption needs of the migrant population from agriculture for housing, durable goods, and services have increased significantly.
The improvement of the urban living environment and the development of new business formats have also spawned more abundant and diversified new consumer demands.
The urbanization of the migrant population from agriculture has significantly boosted investment.
One is to directly drive the growth of urban infrastructure investment.
From 2012 to 2019, the annual investment in urban public facilities construction increased from 1.5 trillion yuan to 2.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 31%.
The second is to drive the growth of investment in residential construction.
From 2012 to 2020, residential investment will increase from 4.9 trillion yuan to 10.4 trillion yuan.
The proportion of migrant workers buying houses in cities has increased from 0.6% to about 20%.
The third is to drive the growth of investment in urban public service facilities.
Education, medical care, old-age care, nursery education, etc. are the primary public service needs for the urbanization of agricultural migrants.
In the future, urbanization still has a lot of room for growth.
It is estimated that by 2035, there will be an increase of about 150 million urban populations. The agricultural transfer population will still be the main force. At the same time, the expansion of settlement space will increase the willingness to settle, and big cities will have a stronger ability to absorb and carry agricultural transfer population.
However, compared with the urban registered population, there is still a gap in the level and quality of public services enjoyed by the non-registered population in the city. Gradually increasing their level of public services in the city has huge potential for domestic demand at both ends of consumption and investment.
How to make better use of the supporting role of the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population in expanding domestic demand?
One is to vigorously promote the reform of the household registration system.
Liberalize the restrictions on settlement in cities with a permanent population of 3 to 5 million in urban areas, and guide megacities to liberalize restrictions on settlement in suburbs in accordance with local conditions.
Streamline the points settlement project in super large cities, increase the proportion of points for residence, employment, and social security payment years, and remove the limit on the number of points settlement.
The second is to promote the deep integration of the migrant population from agriculture into the city.
Implement targeted vocational skills training to improve the employment competitiveness of agricultural migrants.
Promote basic public services in cities and towns to cover all permanent residents in cities and towns, and improve security systems for education, medical care, pensions, and housing.
Improve the housing market system and housing security system to support reasonable self-occupation needs.
The third is to improve the two-way flow of labor between urban and rural areas.
Improve the mechanism for the realization of the "three rights" of the agricultural transfer population in the countryside, and increase their willingness and ability to settle in cities.
Formulate specific measures for the agricultural transfer population to withdraw from the rural "three rights" voluntarily and with compensation in accordance with the law, so as to realize the right to go with the people and bring capital into the city.
Encourage all kinds of local talents to return to their hometowns to start businesses, encourage conditional collective economic organizations to appropriately open up to the outside population, promote two-way mobility, and each has its own place.
The fourth is to strengthen the core power source of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas and the important carrier role of counties.
Coordinate and promote the development of urban agglomerations and metropolitan area infrastructure, social security, and social governance integration, and better play the role of absorbing the migrant population from agriculture.
To meet the needs of farmers to work and settle down in the county, make up for the shortcomings in the county's urban public facilities, public service facilities and industrial supporting facilities.
(The author is the director of the Urban and Small Town Reform and Development Center of the National Development and Reform Commission)