China-Singapore Jingwei, November 16th (Wang Yongle) "Silver Ten" closed the contract, "Silver Ten" changed to "Tie Ten"... Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest price data of 70 cities, and the agency's judgment on the property market in October was once again obtained Confirmed.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei Group found that in October, both new and second-hand housing prices continued their downward trend as a whole, and the number of cities with price increases "dipped" deeply.

After the "Golden Nine" and "Silver Ten" successively missed appointments, how did the house prices go in the last two months of the year?

Come and see what the experts say.

"13+4" price increases in cities with a depth of "diving"

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of new homes in 70 cities increased month-on-month for “five consecutive declines”, and fell to 13 cities in October, while 52 cities fell; the price of second-hand houses increased month-on-month in cities that saw “seven consecutive declines”, and only 4 cities in October Up and down cities soared to 64.

  In terms of different cities, the adjustment range of housing prices in first-tier cities was the same as last month, and the decline in second- and third-tier cities showed an expanding trend.

  According to statistics from the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, 70 cities with new housing prices hit a record low since March 2015 (12 cities), while price-declining cities hit a new high since February 2015 (66 cities); The lowest level since October 2014 (2 cities), and the highest in price-declining cities since October 2014 (64 cities).

  "According to simple arithmetic calculations, the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities across the country increased by -0.3% month-on-month in October. The month-on-month decline occurred for the first time in September, and the decline has expanded in October." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute It is believed that the current real estate market is beginning to enter the winter, and the contradiction in the real estate market has turned from "overheating" to "overcooling".

  According to the analysis of Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, the number of cities where the prices of new and second-hand houses fell in October increased again. On the one hand, due to the tightening of market regulation, the "three red lines" intensified the pressure on the financing end of real estate companies, and the liquidity of funds became urgently needed by real estate companies. To solve the problem, in order to accelerate the payment and enter the new year, real estate companies have increased their performance targets and sold at lower prices. On the other hand, the property market has been regulated frequently, from strengthening purchase restrictions to issuing second-hand housing guidance prices, Cracking down on the speculation of high-priced school districts has all eased the false heat of the property market to a certain extent, and prices have shown a certain downward trend.

  As for the price reduction of nearly 90% of second-hand housing in 70 cities, Yan Yuejin pointed out that this wave of second-hand housing cooling is of a nationwide nature.

At present, all types of second-hand housing in cities are under pressure, and similar pressure will also be transmitted to the primary housing market.

The replacement of some landlords’ houses will be pressured, which in turn will also affect the de-distribution of some improved new housing projects.

  Data from 65 cities monitored by 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute shows that the number of second-hand houses on shelves has declined for six consecutive months, and the decline has hit a record high in the past four months, reaching 9.5% in October.

The absolute value of the stock in October was the lowest in the past nine months, with a year-on-year decline of 34%.

Is the turning point coming?

Property market data map.

Photo by Sino-Singapore Jingwei Wan Keyi

  Looking forward to the future, Xu Zhijing, an analyst at 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, pointed out that under the high-pressure policy, the nation's house prices have seen an inflection point.

In October, the intensity of the release of regulation and control measures for the real estate market in various regions was significantly reduced, and the central government's policies tended to establish a long-term mechanism.

Near the end of the year, the popularity of the second-hand housing market across the country will still decline for a period of time.

  According to the statistics of Centaline Property, as of November 10, the number of real estate adjustments nationwide in 2021 reached 540.

Previously, Centaline Property statistics showed that there were 62 adjustments in a single month in September, 482 adjustments in the first nine months, and an average of 53 times a month.

In other words, since October, there have been 58 real estate adjustments nationwide, which is lower than a single month in September, with an average of less than 45 per month.

  According to the analysis of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, the current real estate support policies introduced in many places involve the relaxation of provident fund loans, the introduction of subsidy policies in cities, the regulation of house price fluctuations, and the adjustment of the pre-sale mechanism. These all reflect that under the guidance of the central government, local governments actively introduced regulations. The policy maintains the stability of the property market, avoids "big ups and downs" in the property market, boosts home buyers' confidence in the market, eases the financial pressure of real estate companies, stabilizes market expectations, and ensures the smooth operation of the market.

  The Zhongzhi Research Institute predicts that more cities will follow up with supportive regulatory policies in various regions to stabilize markets.

Some cities with greater adjustment pressure in the real estate market, destocking pressure, and greater pressure on real estate business operations, will appropriately and reasonably adjust policies based on the "two maintenance" requirements, strengthen credit support for the first housing, and issue housing purchase subsidies, Increasing the provident fund loan line, lowering the interest rate of housing loans, etc., stabilize the expectations of home buyers, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, prevent "injury" to the rigid needs groups, and provide reasonable credit support for housing enterprises.

  "However, it should be noted that the overall national regulation is still tight. The central government has always adhered to the goal of'housing, housing, no speculation' and the'three stability' goals. Under the supervision of the'two red lines' on the bank side, there are expectations of marginal relaxation of regulatory policies, but The possibility of substantial relaxation is very small.” The Middle Finger Research Institute also emphasized.

  According to the analysis of the Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, the cooling of the property market has caused a certain blow to market confidence. However, the central bank has held several meetings recently, emphasizing the need to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers, and release a certain amount of credit. The positive signals from the US may play an important role in stabilizing market expectations and alleviating market downturns.

  "If you look at the real estate market cycle in the past, it will generally fall for 8 months. So in the near future, we should pay attention to the operation of'warming'. Of course, with the loosening of credit policies and the advancement of other supporting policies, there is no need to panic about the market downturn. "Yan Yuejin said that the effects of follow-up policies will gradually appear, and the market will slow down.

Especially in November, it is expected that the sales market in some cities will rebound at the bottom, which will objectively reduce the room for the price index to fall.

  "Because the backlog of mortgage loans has been over several months, it is expected that house prices will continue to decline during the year. However, with the gradual easing of housing loans, the biggest factor affecting the real estate market recently, the market is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter of 2022." Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said in an analysis. .

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, believes that a moderately correct credit environment will not reverse the current downward trend.

Especially when the demand side will not loosen the restrictions on sales and loans, the future demand recovery cannot be too optimistic, and house prices will continue to fall inertially.

  The Southwest Securities Research Report analyzed that the policy is expected to provide easing measures on three sides: operating cash flow, investment cash flow, and financing cash flow. Without pressing the accelerator key, it is more about the industry's stability maintenance policy.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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