Stable investment everywhere accelerates
2021 is about to end, and many places have recently started intensively a number of major projects.
Experts said that accelerating the construction of major projects in various places and increasing efforts to make up for shortcomings will help to form a physical workload as soon as possible and further give play to the key role of investment in economic growth.
As the issuance of special bonds accelerates and increases efficiency, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Intensive construction of major projects in many places
On November 4, Guangxi issued the "The Fourth Batch of Autonomous Region-level Plan for Promoting Major Projects in 2021", involving 189 major projects, with a total investment of 185.85 billion yuan, covering transportation, new energy, commercial logistics, infrastructure, and health services. Areas.
On November 5th, Hubei held a concentrated start-up of major projects across the province in the fourth quarter of 2021. The total investment of 805 projects reached 452 billion yuan.
According to the reporter's incomplete analysis, a number of major projects in Shaanxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Shandong and other places have also been concentrated in the near future.
On November 4, Xi'an, Shaanxi held the fourth quarter key project and power grid tackling project concentrated start activity, 100 projects with a total investment of 65.058 billion yuan and an annual investment of 12.266 billion yuan.
On November 2, construction of 50 major projects in Putian, Fujian Province started in a concentrated manner.
Sichuan Province previously stated that the construction projects of the Chengdu-Chongqing Double City Economic Circle have been implemented one after another. Major projects have been started in the fourth quarter. The investment in manufacturing and infrastructure construction has resumed and accelerated, and the physical investment volume has accelerated.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, stated that the Politburo meeting held on July 30 requires that macroeconomic policy inter-cycle adjustments should be made; budgetary investment and local government bond issuance progress should be properly controlled to promote the formation of a physical workload at the end of this year and early next year. ; Accelerate the construction of major engineering projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
In the short term, the construction of major projects will play a key role in stabilizing growth; in the medium and long term, it will help optimize the economic and industrial structure and lay a solid foundation for high-quality development.
Since the beginning of this year, major projects have played a significant role in supporting economic development.
In the first three quarters, the number of projects over 1 billion yuan in Jiangsu Province increased by 24.1% year-on-year, completed investment increased by 13.5%, and contributed 45.3% to investment growth.
There were 8,277 projects under construction in Jiangxi with more than 100 million yuan, an increase of 1,120 year-on-year, and completed investment increased by 8.1%, accounting for 67.1% of total investment.
According to the relevant person in charge of the National Railway Group, in the first three quarters, the construction of a number of key projects such as the Ya'an to Xindu Bridge of the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, the section from Bomi to Linzhi, and the Wuhan-Yichang section of the Shanghai-Chongqing-Rongjiang high-speed railway started. A number of new lines such as high-speed railways have been completed and put into use, and the progress of railway fixed assets investment is slightly higher than
In the same period last year, it has made positive contributions to promoting economic and social development.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, believes that investment performance has been relatively weak this year. With the acceleration of the issuance of local government special bonds and the concentrated start of a number of major projects, the decline in fixed asset investment growth in the fourth quarter is expected to be eased, and at the same time, Lay a good foundation for the medium and long-term economic maintenance to maintain stable development.
Optimal structure to make up for shortcomings becomes an investment focus
The construction of major projects is a strong support for stable growth and investment, as well as a key carrier for structural adjustment and rotation energy and an important engine for making up for shortcomings and benefiting people's livelihood.
Looking at the newly started projects in various places, we can see that "two new projects and one heavyweight" is the highlight.
Shenzhen started 224 new projects in the fourth quarter, with a total investment of about 445.53 billion yuan, and an annual planned investment of about 22.3 billion yuan, including Han's CNC Industrial Park, Guoxian Technology New Display R&D and Production Base, TCL Advanced Semiconductor Display Industry Headquarters and other major project.
Since mid-to-late October, the four provinces of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia have organized a number of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects with a total scale of nearly 30 million kilowatts. The first batch of projects with an installed capacity of about 100 million kilowatts has begun.
The construction of people's livelihood projects is also increasing.
Shanghai’s “five new cities” major projects for people’s livelihood started in October, with a total investment of about 21.5 billion yuan in 19 projects, focusing on health care, education, affordable housing, transportation, ecological environment and other livelihood fields.
Among the major projects that started in the fourth quarter of Hubei, there were 140 infrastructure and eco-environmental protection projects, and 73 social and people's livelihood projects.
In the first three quarters of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission examined and approved 66 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 480.4 billion yuan, mainly in the transportation, energy, and information industries.
According to data from the Ministry of Finance, in the first three quarters, about 50% of the new special bonds issued by local governments across the country were invested in major projects in the fields of transportation infrastructure, municipal administration and industrial parks; about 30% were invested in affordable housing projects, health, education, elderly care, cultural tourism, etc. Major projects in the field of social undertakings; about 20% are invested in major projects in the fields of agriculture, forestry, water conservancy, energy, and urban and rural cold chain logistics, which have played an important role in driving the expansion of effective investment and maintaining the stable operation of the economy.
In terms of land security for major projects, the Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province recently issued a notice, deciding to carry out major project land approval actions from November to December, promote the pre-examination of major projects in Guangdong Province and speed up land use approval, and ensure that a number of major provincial projects are in accordance with the law. Start construction in accordance with regulations.
"Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the connotation and role of investment in major projects are very different than in the past. It is no longer a simple hedge against economic downturn, but more and more commitment to optimizing investment structure and promoting economic transformation. The role of escalation." Wang Jun said.
For example, investment in strategic emerging industries, investment in major and critical cross-regional infrastructure projects facing the future and facing international competition, investment in promoting the digital transformation of the whole society, investment in serious "stuck neck" fields, Investment in rural revitalization and the promotion of urban-rural integration have reflected this point.
Infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound
This year is the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. China's economy has maintained steady and rapid growth as a whole, and investment has played a positive role in economic recovery.
Wen Bin said that from a structural point of view, since the beginning of this year, manufacturing investment has maintained a relatively rapid growth rate, real estate investment has fallen under the background of regulation and control, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has remained at a relatively low level.
In the next stage, as the issuance of special bonds by local governments accelerates, infrastructure investment will also stabilize and rise.
The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated significantly since August.
The Ministry of Finance recently stated that it will continue to strengthen its guidance to local governments and require local governments to follow the principle of “funds follow projects” and continue to focus on major national regional development strategies and the “14th Five-Year” development plan to increase support for key projects. In 2021, the issuance of new special bond quotas should be completed as far as possible before the end of November, and the positive effects of special bonds on local economic and social development will continue to be brought into play.
In terms of infrastructure investment, Wen Bin believes that the next step is to do a good job of linking funds and projects, especially local government special debts and supporting bank credit support, so that these projects can speed up construction, form physical workloads as soon as possible, and improve stability. Growth plays a positive role.
However, experts also reminded that the acceleration of local debt issuance will have a certain supporting and underpinning effect on infrastructure investment, but taking into account the constraints of controlling the hidden debt of local governments, restraining the risk of local debt, and insufficient infrastructure projects that meet the standards, It is also not appropriate to overestimate the pulling effect of local government debt on infrastructure investment.
In order to better stabilize growth through stable investment, Wang Jun suggested appropriately increasing the scale of national debt issuance, maintaining the necessary fiscal expansion, using public expenditure to drive private capital investment, and continuing to strengthen infrastructure investment.
At the same time, in terms of monetary policy, we must give full play to the unique role of structural monetary policy, further reduce the level of real market interest rates, and drive investment to return to a normal state of growth.
Our reporter Xiong Li