The winner is Christian Lindner.

First the way to the position he is aiming for opens up, then Olaf Scholz, as managing finance minister, announces a happy tax message.

As things stand, the FDP chairman can now count on inheriting the Social Democrats in Wilhelmstrasse - when the three traffic light parties come together.

Of course, in the hot phase of the struggle, it is not officially confirmed that the Greens will renounce the Ministry of Finance.

But it has long been clear that the FDP cannot buckle here without seriously damaging itself.

That was and is different for the competitor.

Anyone who sees climate change as the greatest task of mankind must strive for an office that is in charge of it.

The Greens chairman Robert Habeck can therefore back down on the successor to Scholz, Lindner not.

Tax cuts are not in sight

The SPD politician is not yet in the Chancellery, as finance minister it fell to him to submit the new tax estimate.

The working group predicts an additional revenue of 179 billion euros after three days of weighing and calculating - over five years.

This financial blessing does not belong to the federal government alone.

The traffic light coalition that is about to start can at least hope for an additional almost 72 billion euros.

She urgently needs the funds.

That is less true for next year, as the current financial planning leaves little to be desired.

This allows the debt brake to be suspended again.

But after that, many approaches are unrealistically low.

In 2025 there is also a gap in the billions, Scholz called it a need for political action. There is no provision for a soli-break.

And that could come faster than the SPD and the Greens would like.

The matter is already with the Federal Constitutional Court.

A good tax estimate does not turn the Treasury into a treasury.

It is still not clear where the money for the Ampel partners' big plans will come from.

If you want to spend more somewhere, you have to cut elsewhere.

Tax cuts are certainly not in sight.

How long do you think you can enjoy what you are deeply striving for?