Chinanews client, Beijing, November 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by factors such as rising vegetable prices, the national consumer price (CPI) increased significantly in October compared with the same period last year.

At present, the prices of some vegetables have fallen, but the overall prices of vegetables are still high. Coupled with the rebound of pork prices, how will the CPI change in the future?

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

October CPI year-on-year increase hits a new high for the year

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 10th, the CPI in October rose 1.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. This not only ended the "four consecutive declines" trend, but also set a new high for the year in one fell swoop.

　　Specifically, food prices fell by 2.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.45 percentage points.

In food, the price of pork fell by 44.0%, and the rate of decline narrowed by 2.9%; the price of fresh vegetables turned from a 2.5% drop last month to an increase of 15.9%; the prices of freshwater fish, eggs and edible vegetable oil rose by 18.6%, 14.3% and 9.3% respectively.

　　Non-food prices rose by 2.4%, an increase of 0.4%, affecting the CPI's rise by about 1.97%.

Among non-food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point. The prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 32.2% and 35.7% respectively.

　　"According to estimates, of the 1.5% year-on-year increase in October, the carry-over impact of last year's price changes was about 0.2 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.3 percentage points, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month." Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the company, said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month.

Rising vegetable prices pushed up the month-on-month increase in CPI

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI went from flat in the previous month to an increase of 0.7%.

Among them, food prices changed from a 0.7% decline last month to an increase of 1.7%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.31 percentage points.

　　"Mainly the price of fresh vegetables has risen more." Dong Lijuan introduced that due to the superimposed influence of rainy weather, summer and autumn stubble, the spread of epidemics in some areas, and the increase in production and transportation costs, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 16.6%, affecting the CPI increase by about 0.34 percentage points. , Accounting for nearly 50% of the total increase.

Vegetable prices at a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service

　　In late October, at a vegetable stall in a vegetable market in Xicheng District, Beijing, a reporter from Chinanews.com noticed that small spinach was 15 yuan a catty, fast seedlings were 13 yuan a catty, broccoli was 10 yuan a catty, and fennel and eggplant were 9 yuan. A catty, green garlic, dry cucumber 8 yuan a catty, the price of many kinds of vegetables is significantly higher than before.

　　In addition, "With the seasonal increase in consumer demand and the orderly implementation of the second round of central reserve pork purchasing and storage, pork prices have rebounded slightly since mid-October, and the average monthly decline is still 2.0%, which is narrower than the previous month. 3.1 percentage points." Dong Lijuan pointed out.

　　In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, a reporter from Chinanews.com also noticed that on October 27, the price of pork front and rear buttocks was 15.8 yuan per catty, which was 4 yuan more expensive than the 11.8 yuan per catty on October 13.

CPI may rebound significantly in the fourth quarter

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from November 1st to November 7th, the weekly average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under monitoring was 5.66 yuan per kilogram, down 4.7% month-on-month and up 23.3% year-on-year.

Among them, the price of spinach fell sharply, down 22.1% month-on-month, and the prices of rape, oyster mushroom, zucchini, cucumber and white radish also fell more than 10% month-on-month.

The weekly average price of pork in the wholesale market was 23.13 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 4.2% from the previous month, which was a four-week increase, with a cumulative increase of 29.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%.

　　On November 5, Chinanews.com visited many supermarkets in Beijing and found that the prices of vegetables such as spinach and pakchoi that have a short growth cycle and recovered quickly have dropped significantly, but the prices of vegetables such as hot peppers and bell peppers have remained high.

The vegetable section of a supermarket in Chaoyang District, Beijing.

Photo by Zuo Yuqing

　　"From the perspective of 28 key monitored vegetable price trends, the seasonal factors of vegetable prices are more obvious. From October to February of the following year, vegetable prices are still more likely to continue to rise." Chief Analyst of the Policy Group of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute Teacher Liu Chang said that after entering November, the price of vegetables in the first 9 days was still up 5.2% from the average price of the previous month, which still has a pulling effect on CPI food.

　　"The CPI in the fourth quarter is facing a positive drive in terms of oil prices, vegetable prices, pig prices, and PPI transmission. Taking into account the significant decrease in the CPI base in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the CPI will rebound significantly in the fourth quarter." Ping An Securities pointed out.

If PPI is high, will it be clearly transmitted to CPI?

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the PPI increased again due to the impact of international import factors and the tight supply of domestic major energy and raw materials.

　　From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 13.5%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the price of means of production rose by 17.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points; the price of means of living rose by 0.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage point.

　　In the face of high PPI, the market is beginning to worry about whether it will be significantly transmitted to CPI.

　　In this regard, Guohai Securities believes that although the price of industrial products may still be under upward pressure from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, the risk of the winter epidemic will increase, which will continue to restrict the transmission of PPI to the core CPI.

In 2022, as upstream commodity prices peak and fall, upward pressure on core CPI will further weaken.

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