Even a broken watch is right twice a day, at least if it is analog.
With this ridicule, optimists can consider pessimistic forecasters who have been concerned about a bubble in the private equity market for years.
And it's true: the boom dragged on into its tenth or eleventh year without any major interruptions.
The investment professionals themselves have long been nervous, and have been very audible at their SuperReturn industry congress since 2015.
Governments and companies continue to borrow, central banks keep interest rates low, the markets are flooded with cheap money, credit terms are relaxed, and the relative prices for company investments have risen.
Crash in 2008 and 2009
The more experienced investment managers can still well remember the crash in 2008 and 2009, when a multi-year private equity boom ended abruptly;
Overpriced companies were now in the portfolios.
For a short time after the beginning of the Corona crisis in spring 2020, the scenario seemed realistic again;
Securing liquidity suddenly became the focus.
But the paralysis lasted briefly, the crisis was poured in with money, and so the experts are meeting this week for the SuperReturn in their usual robust shape and again in person.
The thoughtful among them - and there are very many - are aware of the risks.
Forecast: The private equity pessimists' clock will also prove to be right at some point.