Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have taken multiple measures simultaneously. All parties in production and transportation need to work together to increase market supply, and to supervise the futures and currents. Severely crack down on hoarding and raising coal prices, resolutely curb excessive speculation, and eliminate malicious capital. Hype, the work of maintaining the supply and stabilizing prices of bulk commodities has achieved initial results, the national coal supply and demand situation has improved significantly, and the level of coal storage in integrated power plants has rapidly increased, which has laid a good foundation for ensuring the safe supply of electricity and the warmth of the people through the winter.
Guaranteed supply and stable prices achieved initial results
Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the global epidemic, loose overseas liquidity, and mismatches between supply and demand, global commodity prices have generally risen.
Since late October, due to many factors at home and abroad, the prices of domestic commodities such as thermal coal, coking coal, and coke have risen sharply, causing great concern.
Subsequently, policy regulation continued to increase.
On November 3, the National Development and Reform Commission deployed the data filling work of the coal mid- and long-term contract performance monitoring system, and simultaneously carried out the clean-up and rectification of coal storage sites in coal production areas.
On November 3, the Dalian Commodity Exchange added two designated delivery warehouses for coking coal in Shanxi. Since then, the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures have increased to 13, covering major trade such as Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, Qingdao Dongjiakou Port, Rizhao Port, etc. Ports and major producing areas such as Shanxi have further improved the convenience for companies in the major coking coal producing areas to carry out futures trading and delivery services, and serve to ensure the supply and price stability of bulk commodities.
Since the settlement on November 4, the trading margin standard for thermal coal futures 2112 and 2201 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has been adjusted to 50%, and the trading margin standard for thermal coal futures 2202, 2203, 2204 and 2205 contracts has been adjusted to 40%.
After a series of measures, the price of thermal coal futures plunged.
As of November 8, the main contract price of thermal coal fell from the highest of 1982.0 yuan/ton to the lowest of 916.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 54%, reversing all the gains since September 10.
On the spot side, the National Development and Reform Commission has released a list of coal mines guaranteed to be supplied for this winter and next spring. The nuclear capacity will increase by 78 million tons, and the domestic supply capacity will be significantly enhanced.
In addition, in the near future, various departments will also control investment in high-energy-consuming projects to further reduce demand side pressure.
At the same time, the regulatory authorities severely cracked down on illegal profit-making activities such as hoarding and driving up coal prices by using illegal coal storage sites, and carried out special supervision of the coal market.
Under strong policy control interventions, the contradiction between supply and demand in the coal market has been significantly eased, coal production capacity and output have been gradually released and increased, the contradiction between supply and demand and the speculative atmosphere have been effectively alleviated, and the spot market price of coal futures has gradually returned to rationality.
Intervening in coal prices in accordance with the law, using “visible hands” to regulate the market, cracking down on coal market speculation in accordance with the law, curbing excessive market speculation, promoting market sentiment and returning prices to rationality, fully demonstrates the country’s resolute attitude in protecting the people’s livelihood and energy use, and is important for protecting the people. It is of great significance for the masses to survive the winter warmly to ensure energy security and maintain social stability.
Obvious effect of futures-to-now linkage supervision
As early as May 25 this year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Action Plan for Deepening the Reform of the Price Mechanism during the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan Period", emphasizing the response to bulk commodity price fluctuations and strengthening the response to bulk commodity market dynamics and prices. Follow-up analysis of the situation, in-depth study and judgment of imported impacts, and timely proposed comprehensive control measures such as reserves, import and export, fiscal and taxation.
In the coal regulation, strengthening the supervision of futures and currents is an important experience.
The National Development and Reform Commission and other macro-management departments have continued to make efforts from the perspectives of stabilizing the supply side, regulating the intermediate trade side, and appropriately suppressing the non-rigid demand side, including increasing production and supply, strengthening import and export regulation, and increasing market supervision. Good results have been achieved in supply and price stabilization.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission cooperates with the macro-management department to do a good job in the joint supervision of futures and currents to stabilize market expectations.
On the one hand, it has guided exchanges to adopt a number of measures such as raising fee standards, tightening transaction limits, and studying and implementing measures to expand the scope of deliverables to resolutely curb excessive speculation and put an end to malicious capital speculation.
At the same time, we will maintain "zero tolerance" for violations of laws and regulations in the futures market, and increase efforts to crack down on violations such as manipulation.
On the other hand, listed companies are encouraged and supported to focus on their main business, strengthen internal control, make good use of the hedging function of the futures market, promote stable operations, perform information disclosure obligations in accordance with laws and regulations, and strictly regulate the management and use of raised funds.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adopted a series of measures such as timely and dynamic adjustment of price limits, margins, storage fees, and timely expansion of delivery storage capacity, to effectively release market risks and promote the stability of domestic crude oil and other futures markets.
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased transaction costs and curbed excessive market transactions, and the effect of reducing market enthusiasm was significant.
The Dalian Commodity Exchange has repeatedly raised the level of speculative trading margin, implemented trading limits and revised position-limiting rules, and the effect of curbing excessive speculation has been obvious.
Guo Chaohui, chief analyst of Commodity Research at CICC, said that in the context of relatively weak demand growth, industrial policies, power shortages and weather factors have become the main drivers of commodity prices at this stage.
In the short term, the effects of ensuring supply and price stability, energy shortages and extreme weather are intertwined, energy prices will show divergence, and electricity prices for high-energy-consuming companies may rise to a certain extent.
Use market-based methods to ensure supply and stable prices
According to industry insiders, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to speed up making up for shortcomings, focus on important livelihood commodities and bulk commodities, improve the monitoring, forecasting and early warning system, enhance the forward-looking nature of the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and firmly grasp the initiative.
This requires strengthening the tracking and analysis of the dynamics and price situation of the commodity markets such as iron ore, copper, crude oil, natural gas, corn, soybeans and so on.
More importantly, it is necessary to improve the market-determining price mechanism, establish a scientific pricing system, improve the regulation and control methods based on reserve regulation and import and export regulation, enrich and optimize the regulation toolbox, and limit the scope of government pricing to network-based natural monopolies. We will focus on enhancing policy flexibility and flexibility in links and important public utilities and public welfare services, and improve the ability and level of ensuring supply and price stability.
How to use market-based methods to ensure supply and price stability, increase the global influence on the allocation of factor resources, and maintain the stability of the industrial supply chain?
Among them, the futures industry can show its talents.
Price discovery is the core function of the futures market, and futures prices can effectively reflect future market supply and demand information.
This function is like a "thermometer". Once the number of "thermometer" is abnormal, it indicates that a certain part of the economy has a tight supply-demand relationship, and macro-control needs to be "tuned down early" to prescribe the right medicine.
This also requires the efficient coordination of relevant functional departments, the establishment of a rapid response mechanism, and the strengthening of coordination and linkage of relevant policies to avoid price surges and plunges.
Zhao Pengfei, deputy general manager of China Aluminum International Trade Group Co., Ltd., said that bulk commodities are the cornerstone of economic development and the guarantee of industrial safety.
He suggested speeding up the opening up of the futures market, striving to realize the new pattern of "Chinese market, global customers" as soon as possible, further increasing the construction of futures delivery warehouses and warehousing logistics, and actively constructing a logistics and warehousing guarantee system commensurate with my country's economic scale, and give full play to my country's super-large-scale market advantage and domestic demand potential will improve the ability of policies to regulate the market and the cohesion of the current market.
Zhu Bin, deputy general manager of Nanhua Futures, believes that to use more market-oriented methods to stabilize commodity prices requires not only establishing a stronger market mechanism to regulate the factors and resources that affect prices, but also focusing on the needs of market entities and the macro policy level. We will provide assistance in export, credit and taxation policies to guide the industry to adjust the market layout, deepen the function of the futures market, promote the development of the futures and the current, and promote the price of bulk commodities to become reasonable and stable in the market environment.
(Economic Daily reporter Zhu Huichun)