Chinanews client, Beijing, November 10 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) In October, we witnessed "food is more expensive than meat", we saw eggs that rose by more than 20% in half a month, and ushered in a rebound in pork prices.

　　On the 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October. What will be the trend of the CPI increase?

With the sharp increase in vegetable prices, the CPI may increase year-on-year or expand

　　Driven by the expansion of the year-on-year decline in pork prices, the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year in September, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and has fallen for four consecutive months.

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

　　According to statistics from Flush iFinD, 21 institutions have an average forecast of 1.51% for the year-on-year increase in CPI in October.

If the above-mentioned average forecast value is fulfilled, the year-on-year increase of CPI in October will increase significantly.

　　From the perspective of institutional analysis, a major factor in the increase or expansion of the CPI year-on-year in October was the sharp increase in vegetable prices.

　　"In the early stage, some vegetable growing areas in my country were severely affected by rainfall, and in October, when summer vegetables were on the market and autumn and winter vegetables were not yet available in large quantities, the price of vegetables rose sharply, and some vegetable prices were higher than pork prices." Transportation Said Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Banking Financial Research Center.

　　According to Tang Ke, Director of the Department of Market and Information Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in October was 5.25 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 16.7% month-on-month and an increase of 11.7% year-on-year. Bigger, especially leafy vegetables such as spinach and lettuce rose more significantly.

　　In late October, in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, a reporter from Chinanews.com noticed that amaranth and water spinach were 13.98 yuan a catty, water spinach was 11.98 yuan a catty, butter lettuce was 9.58 yuan a catty, Chinese cabbage was 8.98 yuan a catty, and water radish. , Parsley 7.98 yuan per catty, the price has risen significantly.

　　According to the monitoring of the "National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System" of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork (white striped meat) in October 2021 was 19.51 yuan/kg, down 2.1% month-on-month and 54.2% year-on-year. narrow.

　　In the above-mentioned supermarket, the reporter also noticed that on October 27, the price of the front and rear buttocks of pork was 15.8 yuan per catty, which was 4 yuan more expensive than the 11.8 yuan per catty on October 13.

　　"In addition, the rising trend of industrial product prices is slowly transmitted to end consumer products, and non-food prices tend to rise as a whole. The CPI carry-over factor was 0.1% in October, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from September." Liu Xuezhi pointed out that combining the above factors, The year-on-year increase in CPI will rebound significantly, and is expected to be between 1.3% and 1.5%, with a median value of 1.4%, which is the first rebound in the past five months.

The vegetable area of ​​a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service

CPI may not have a substantial upward basis

　　According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from November 1st to November 7th, the weekly average price of 28 kinds of vegetables under monitoring was 5.66 yuan per kilogram, down 4.7% month-on-month and up 23.3% year-on-year.

Among them, the price of spinach fell sharply, down 22.1% month-on-month, and the prices of rape, oyster mushroom, zucchini, cucumber and white radish also fell more than 10% month-on-month.

The weekly average price of pork in the wholesale market was 23.13 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 4.2% from the previous month, which was a four-week increase, with a cumulative increase of 29.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.2%.

　　On November 5, Chinanews.com visited many supermarkets in Beijing and found that the prices of vegetables such as spinach and pakchoi that have a short growth cycle and recovered quickly have dropped significantly, but the prices of vegetables such as hot peppers and bell peppers have remained high.

　　"In the short-term, vegetable prices will remain high overall. As the supply situation improves, there may be some declines, but it will take some time to achieve." said Liu Tong, head of the Beijing Xinfadi Market Statistics Department.

　　"The CPI in the fourth quarter is facing a positive drive in terms of oil prices, vegetable prices, pig prices, and PPI transmission. Taking into account the significant decrease in the CPI base in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected that the CPI will rebound significantly in the fourth quarter." Ping An Securities pointed out.

　　China Merchants Securities believes that due to base factors, the CPI in the fourth quarter will run in a relatively high range year-on-year. However, considering the decline in the growth rate of the national per capita disposable income and consumer spending in the third quarter, the CPI may not have a substantial upward basis.

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