In the almost two years of the corona pandemic, there were seldom press conferences at which business associations were satisfied with the financial situation of their industry.

Seen in this way, it was remarkable what outlook the HDE trade association gave on Monday for the year-end spurt.

Despite the fourth wave, despite delivery bottlenecks and high inflation, Germany's retailers expect record sales in the Christmas business.

Revenues are likely to increase by 2 percent to 111.7 billion euros in November and December.

In the previous year it was only 109.5 billion euros; by 2018, less than 100 billion euros came into the coffers of retailers in the last two months of the year.

Julia Löhr

Business correspondent in Berlin.

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Chief Executive Stefan Genth sees the high savings that people have built up during the months-long lockdowns - and for which some banks are now charging penalty interest - as the main reason. "People didn't refuse to shop, they just couldn't," said Genth.

Now, however, consumers have a different problem: Due to global delivery bottlenecks - from a lack of chips to a lack of transport capacity - some shelves in the so-called non-food segment are empty.

Many consumers have already started to stock up on Christmas presents.

"We see for certain products such as toys and consumer electronics that October was used." But there will still be a good offer in the Christmas season, Genth tried to reassure all those who have not yet been able to get hold of a Sony Playstation or Nintendo Switch.

Trade worried about tougher corona measures

Retailers are concerned about the discussion about the introduction of stricter corona measures in areas such as gastronomy, cinemas and culture. In Saxony, 2G has been in effect since today, access only for those who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered. Elsewhere, the more expensive PCR instead of the rapid test is now required for 3G.

Last November, during the “lockdown light”, customer traffic in city centers fell by around 30 percent. "If measures are now adopted for the catering industry, this will of course also have consequences for us," said Genth. He does not consider it necessary to extend the 3G rules to retail because of the mask requirement, distance rules and hygiene concepts. “If 3G were to come, it would be a de facto lockdown.” A new general lockdown in Germany would be disproportionate and unconstitutional in the view of the HDE with a view to more than two thirds of the vaccinated population.

"After the Corona lockdowns in the first half of the year, the last two months are more important than ever for many retailers," said Genth.

According to the association's figures, typical gift industries such as toy retailers and jewelers make more than a fifth of their annual turnover in November and December. "  

According to an HDE survey of 450 companies from all industries, size classes and locations, 45 percent of retailers expect sales increases compared to the previous year.

A third calculated with stable sales.

The customers want to spend an average of 273 euros, a little more than last year.

The most popular gift is also vouchers.

The association is critical of the federal government's corona aid.

The fact that Bridging Aid III is only available from a sales decline of 30 percent is too high a hurdle for many retailers.

“This limit would have to be lowered.” Genth also spoke out in favor of extending the aid, which is currently limited to the end of December.

"By the end of March it would certainly be moderate and good."