Central banks around the world are wrestling with monetary policy in the face of soaring inflation.
Some have already tightened the hitherto very loose monetary policy, others are still waiting.
America's Federal Reserve (Fed) had just announced a gradual exit from its bond purchases - and triggered a real price firework on the stock exchanges on Thursday.
At 16,050.60 points, the Dax temporarily reached the highest level in its history.
Andreas Mihm
Business correspondent for Austria, East-Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey based in Vienna.
Follow I follow
Philip Plickert
Business correspondent based in London.
Follow I follow
Christian Siedenbiedel
Editor in business.
Follow I follow
Meanwhile, contrary to market expectations, the British central bank decided not to raise the key interest rate on Thursday, but instead left the interest rate at the record low of 0.1 percent.
The markets reacted clearly to this, too: The pound exchange rate fell at times by up to 0.8 percent from 1.18 to 1.17 euros.
The big question now is: How much pressure does the Fed's decision put the European Central Bank (ECB) under pressure to normalize itself faster than planned?
ECB President Christine Lagarde has recently tried to dispel speculation on the market about an early exit from bond purchases and an initial rate hike in the coming year - despite the inflation rate that has risen to 4.1 percent in the eurozone as well.
It is "very unlikely" that the conditions for an increase in the coming year are met, she said in Lisbon.
In the Governing Council there are also voices like those of Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann who insist on a faster tightening.
Weidmann has announced his withdrawal from the top of the Bundesbank - probably also because he does not get through.
Pressure on the ECB is growing
America's advance could put the ECB under pressure in two ways: argumentative and technical.
Banking associations such as the Federal Association of Volks- und Raiffeisenbanken and some political voices have been calling for an end to the crisis bond purchases for a long time - this could worsen.
From a purely technical point of view, the pressure on Europe's central bank could increase if the transatlantic interest rate differential increases and the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro becomes stronger and stronger.
Immediately after the Fed's decision, the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro had risen.
The yield on the ten-year Bund had fallen - a sign that investors in the Eurozone, unlike in America, are not expecting higher interest rates anytime soon.
"The Fed has announced that it would like to stop its bond purchases by the end of June 2022 in eight even steps," said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at the Berenberg banking house. "This means it is way ahead of the ECB, which has so far only scaled back its crisis program a little." Even if the crisis program ends on schedule at the end of March 2022, the ECB wants to continue its normal purchase program until the first interest rate hike is imminent: "To an announcement We will probably have to wait until spring or summer 2023 for the ECB to stop its bond purchases entirely. We expect the ECB to end its bond purchases in September 2023 and then raise the key interest rate for the first time in December 2023. "
While the turnaround in monetary policy in some countries is likely to have little impact on savings rates in Germany, building interest rates could be moved by a general upward trend in interest rates in the next few months, says Mirjam Mohr, CEO of the mortgage broker Interhyp: "The majority of the experts we surveyed expect a further upward trend in building interest. "
Reluctance not only in Great Britain
In Great Britain, a large majority of analysts now believe in a first rate hike in December. The decision in London was made by seven votes to two in the MPC Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. Federal Reserve Chairman Andrew Bailey himself had also fueled expectations of an interest rate hike. According to a statement from the Bank of England, the committee has “judged that the current direction of monetary policy is appropriate”, but that interest rate hikes will probably be necessary “over the coming months”. At the same time, the central bank announced a new inflation forecast of up to 5 percent in the coming months.
The Norwegian central bank also decided against a rate hike on Thursday. However, it announced that its key interest rate would rise to 0.25 in December. In Central and Eastern Europe, meanwhile, inflation, fueled by a strong economy, rising wages and high prices for energy imports, has really shocked some monetary policy “pigeons”. In view of a current rise in consumer prices of 7 percent, the Polish central bank is now also putting the brakes on monetary policy after a long period of hesitation. It increased the key interest rate by 0.75 points to 1.25 percent on Wednesday after it had been raised for the first time in October.
The central banks of Hungary and the Czech Republic have been raising their interest rates step by step since the summer. The reasons are the macroeconomic environment and generous governments that not only have the consequences of the Corona but also parliamentary elections and their political survival in mind. The Prague central bank raised the key rate on Thursday by a surprisingly high 1.25 points to 2.75 percent, in Budapest it is currently 1.8 percent. Romania and, for a long time, the Ukraine have also jumped on the bandwagon, the Russian central bank is living up to its name as a monetary policy "falcon" with a key interest rate of 7.5 percent and currency devaluation of just over 8 percent. Turkey is taking another path, falling key interest rates when inflation rises:Here, at the behest of the president, the central bank has lowered interest rates to 16 percent, and that with rising inflation, which is scratching the 20 percent mark.