It seems like a touch of normality that has been missing for a long time: A European airline is making profits despite the corona pandemic.

Ryanair earned 225 million euros in the summer quarter, for the same period last year the low-cost airline had given about the same value as a loss.

And in the month of October, which is not included in the quarterly balance sheet, 11.3 million passengers boarded, almost three times as many as in the same month of 2020.

Timo Kotowski

Editor in business.

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Is the end of the aviation suffering near or far?

Carsten Spohr, the CEO of Deutsche Lufthansa, finally made a commitment.

"Business travel has returned faster and stronger than expected," he said in an interview with the Kleine Zeitung from Austria.

Since bookings for managers and fitters were less dependent on sunshine and other seasonal factors than vacation tours, he was confident.

“There will be no sudden drop in demand in winter this year,” said Spohr.

Spohr has not yet quantified how the easing - vaccinated people will be allowed to return to the USA from next week - will affect the business outlook.

On Wednesday he will comment on his own balance sheet and forecast.

Is the confidence coming too soon?

In the financial markets, meanwhile, it is controversial whether joy after the Ryanair profit is timely or premature.

On the one hand, profit has long been a foreign concept in aviation, on the other hand, airlines are generally most likely to earn money in the summer.

Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary appeared reluctant on Monday.

In the financial year that runs until March, he expects a loss of 100 to 200 million euros.

Previously, a black zero was considered possible.

But now the increased flight offer must also be sold with the help of cheap tickets.

The analysts from Goldman Sachs still see Ryanair “in line” with the assessments of the industry observers, while those from JP Morgan referred to the imminent annual loss.

The Ryanair share started the day at a discount on Monday, then the price turned positive.

Several unknowns in forecasts

Several points make it difficult to predict how the travel business will develop.

The further infection process and - on other continents - ongoing travel restrictions play a role.

In addition, assessments of how many business trips will be permanently replaced by video conferences vary widely.

And not least because of the current climate conference in Glasgow, the environmental impact of flying is an issue.

The German business travel association VDR found in a survey of travel managers of local companies that 80 percent of the larger companies expect fewer trips in the future.

The only open question is how much will be deleted.

A permanent minus of up to 30 percent was considered possible according to the survey published in September.

Lufthansa boss Spohr opposes such numbers.

In the medium term, the business travel minus will be 10 percent "or even less".

"Each of us has the advantages, but also very clearly got to know the limits of video conferencing." He is now less pessimistic with regard to business trips.