Catalonia will
revalidate its position this year as the autonomous community with the most business insolvencies by registering
more than 1,400 company bankruptcies
, one in three of which will occur in the country, according to the
Solunion
firm
.
This company, a
joint venture
of the insurers Mapfre and Euler Hermes, foresees that 2021 will close with more than
5,000 bankruptcies
nationwide,
30% more
than in 2020, a year that was determined by the stoppage produced by the pandemic.
"Historically,
Catalonia
is among the autonomous communities that generate the most competitions and very on par with Madrid, although it
has continuously surpassed it since 2018.
Furthermore, as of 2019, the weight of competitions in Catalonia compared to the total in Spain is growing. From representing 22% of contests in Spain in 2018 to representing 27% at the end of September 2021 ", they explain to this medium from Solunion.
If its forecasts are fulfilled and Catalonia closes the year with "around
1,400-1,450 contests
", this percentage will rise to
30% of the total
of the events in the country and will exceed that registered in 2020.
So far in 2021, this region has been precisely the one that has suffered the
greatest increase in bankruptcies, from 63%,
to 1,025, as a result of the impact of the pandemic and administrative restrictions on its productive fabric and tourism.
The Community of Madrid (+ 54%) and the Valencian Community (+ 49%) follow the increase in tenders.
Supportive measures do not prevent contests
The 30% increase in the number of bankruptcies that has been registered in Spain in 2021 is one of the highest that occurs globally, despite the
support measures
that have been deployed by the State to mitigate the effects of the covid-19 and that "they artificially stopped the contests", points out Solunion.
"Since July 2020, the monthly insolvency growth has been practically continuous, with the greatest impact in the months of April and May 2021, due to the comparison effect due to the closing of the Courts. As of September, the accumulated growth is one 47% ", explains
Enrique Cuadra
, the firm's corporate
risk
director.
Most of the
bankruptcies
this year (around 2,000) will occur in the
hospitality
sector
, which surpasses what has traditionally been the largest generator of tenders:
construction
.
This "has registered a cumulative growth of 33% as of September 2021, reaching 2018 levels, but still far from the figures recorded in 2013, after the financial crisis," they explain.
The return of ICO loans, key in 2022
For next year, the firm forecasts a
15% increase
in the number of insolvencies to
5,800 bankruptcies
, which will take place mainly in the services, textiles and automotive sectors.
"The funds from
SEPI
and
Cofides
have saved large companies but there are still many that are waiting for this help. We think that this aid will arrive and that casts a more positive outlook for 2022," says Cuadra.
However, there are
risks
on the horizon such as the expiration of the grace period of the loans guaranteed by the
Official Credit Institute (ICO)
that could lead to the first defaults.
"The measures will be withdrawn in 2022 and when companies have to start returning the ICOs that begin to expire in spring 2022, this will be a problem that will have a negative impact on insolvencies," they warn.
Solunion experts have not made an estimate on what percentage of the
131,000 million euros in loans guaranteed by the ICO
could be executed, but the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (
AIReF
) has calculated that some
6,000 million euros will not be returned,
as stated in its report on the Budgets.
Globally, bad debts fall by 6% in 2021
Companies in Spain have
performed worse
than in the rest of the world in 2021, where on average tenders have fallen by 6%.
They are an exception, in addition to Spain, some countries such as
Italy
-where insolvencies have grown 47% year-on-year- or the
United Kingdom
-with an increase of 10% -.
In
France
insolvencies fell by 17% in 2021;
in
Portugal
, 10%;
in
Germany
, 5%;
in the
United States
, 22%;
and in
China
, 10%, according to Solunion data.
With the withdrawal of support measures in 2022, this company expects a "general
increase
in insolvencies in the world", something that could be seen with more intensity in countries where the number of bankruptcies has dropped this year.
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