The growth rate of GDP = gross domestic product for the three months until September, which will be announced next month, is the second term due to the decline in personal consumption due to the rapid spread of infection and the decrease in exports due to the reduction in automobile production. There are many views that it will turn negative for the first time.
Forecasts by private financial institutions and think tanks for GDP from July to September, which will be announced on November 15, are almost complete.
According to this, the real growth rate excluding price fluctuations is expected to turn negative for the first time in two quarters for 10 out of 12 companies.
The forecast for the growth rate of the 10 companies is from minus 2.2% to minus 0.2% on an annualized basis.
The rapid spread of the new coronavirus infection is expected to reduce demand for eating out and travel, and to negatively affect "personal consumption," which accounts for more than half of GDP.
In addition, automobile production cuts are widespread due to difficulties in procuring parts due to a global shortage of semiconductors and the spread of infection in Southeast Asia, and "exports" are said to be negative for the first time in five quarters.
On the other hand, the two companies, which are expected to be positive, also expect the growth rate to be modest, from 0.1% to 0.6% on an annualized basis.
The government has indicated that GDP will return to pre-corona levels by the end of the year, but some say it will be difficult to achieve.