(Economic Observation) Housing loans are showing signs of "speeding up" China's property market policy changes?
China News Service, Beijing, October 29 (Reporter Wang Enbo) Recently, some Chinese banks have shown signs of "speeding up" personal mortgage loans. Officials have also released signals of stabilizing real estate financial policies, which has attracted the market's attention.
Does this mean that the property market policy has changed?
Since the second half of the year, China's real estate market has cooled down, and the "golden nine silver ten" may be difficult to reproduce.
According to estimates, the average month-on-month increase in the price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities in China was -0.1%. This is the first time since May 2015 that the monthly increase in housing prices in 70 cities has been negative.
The chief researcher Tang Jianwei and senior researcher Xia Dan of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center analyzed that the main reasons for the downturn in transactions and the fall in housing prices are, on the one hand, continued tight control, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and insufficient motivation for residents to enter the market; on the other hand, the mortgage loan quota is tight. Weakened residents' ability to buy houses.
However, the situation seems to be changing.
According to media reports, some banks in Qingdao and other places have recently accelerated the approval of mortgage quotas.
At the same time, mortgage interest rates are also showing a downward trend.
The Shell Research Institute monitors that in October, the mainstream first home mortgage interest rate in 90 cities was 5.73%, and the second set of interest rates was 5.99%, both lowered by 1 basis point from the previous month.
The agency pointed out that the October housing loan interest rate correction was the first month-on-month decline in the year, representing an improvement in the credit environment.
What is even more interesting is that, in response to the real estate financial policy, the financial regulatory authorities have successively released signals of stability.
The “maintaining the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers” recently frequently mentioned by the People’s Bank of China is regarded as an action to stabilize expectations.
The remarks made by Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the Central Bank, at the press conference on financial statistics in the third quarter also received attention.
He said that from the data point of view, the amount of personal housing loans issued in the first three quarters of this year remained stable, basically matching the amount of commercial housing sales during the same period.
Among them, housing prices in a few cities have risen too fast, personal housing loans are subject to some constraints, and the rate of housing price rises has been suppressed.
After housing prices stabilize, the supply-demand relationship of housing loans in these cities will return to normal.
Subsequently, Liu Zhongrui, the head of the Statistical Information and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, also emphasized in public that the credit needs of the just-needed group should be guaranteed, and the first home buyers should be supported in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate.
According to the analysis of the Shell Research Institute, since the end of September, the government has repeatedly issued positive signals, and it is expected that the housing loan will be "stable and orderly" in the fourth quarter, guaranteeing and supporting the first set of home buyers and the improved customer group that sells one buys one.
On the one hand, the range of cities where mortgage interest rates will be reduced will expand, and on the other hand, the lending cycle will be shortened.
The marginal improvement of the credit environment is conducive to the improvement of market expectations, driving the rigid-need groups to enter the market to start the house swap chain, which is conducive to the stable and healthy development of the market.
The Crane Research Center predicts that residents' housing purchase credit policy is expected to be moderately relaxed, mainly reflected in increasing personal mortgage loan lines, shortening the loan cycle, etc., thereby supporting residents' self-occupation and improving home purchase consumption, and ensuring the smooth operation of normal real estate transactions.
But for whether this means a change in property market policy, observers have given a more cautious answer.
"We don't think the policy tone of'housing, housing and speculation' will not change." Wang Tao, head of UBS Asia Economic Research and chief China economist, said that the government may loosen the current tight real estate credit policy at the end of this year or early next year. For example, banks are required to expedite the approval of housing loans and slightly loosen housing loan quotas, but they will not loosen the real estate policy overall.
In the view of Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, the current real estate loan policy is only a moderate correction, "it is by no means a full-scale easing of credit on the property market."
He said that in the future, under the control of the overall leverage of the entire industry, developers and buyers, the rigid needs will be protected to meet the reasonable demand for house replacement and financing. In addition, under the "one city, one policy", some cities have sales decline and some Stable and some rebounds, the property market is generally stable.
In fact, the official also gave a clear response to this.
At the aforementioned press conference, Zou Lan reiterated the policy directions of “no real estate speculation” and “not using real estate as a short-term economic stimulus” and emphasized its effectiveness.
He also said, "The central government's strategy and guidelines on real estate regulation are our long-term follow-up to the real estate finance work." (End)