The German economy grew by 1.8 percent in the summer compared to the previous quarter.
But economic output is still around 1 percent below the pre-crisis level.
That it - as hoped at the beginning of the year - will find its way back to its old strength before the turn of the year now seems to be ruled out.
In winter, not only the temperatures, but also the economy should cool down noticeably.
The upswing could then almost come to a standstill.
In the spring, the service providers replaced the industrial companies stricken by delivery bottlenecks as the locomotive of recovery. Spurred on by the Corona easing, people poured into restaurants and shops again. This initial high mood has now evaporated, and the need to catch up on what has been missed is no longer so great.
In addition, the number of corona cases has been picking up again for some time. According to the assurances of the explorers, there will be no new lockdown this fall, but sooner or later politicians will likely react. A nationwide 2G rule that could also be extended to retail trade would be possible. Then only those who have recovered and who have been vaccinated would have access to contact-intensive services. Since at least 20 percent of the population are still not fully vaccinated, that would be a bitter damper for consumption.
In addition, the number of infections is not only increasing in this country, the cases are also increasing in Asia. This harbors the risk that the delivery bottlenecks could worsen further. China, which has been pursuing a strict “zero covid” strategy since the beginning of the corona pandemic, only imposed a lockdown on the metropolis of Lanzhou a few days ago. Other cities could follow, and factories and ports could then be affected again. Instead of a better supply situation, companies faced even longer waiting times.
There is already great uncertainty as to how long the delivery bottlenecks will last.
It is clear that they will continue well into next year.
It is to be hoped that it will not stay in the machine for so long that it will lead to cancellations.
Because the order books are still full - the only thing missing is the material and preliminary products to process them.Keywords: