(Economic Observation) Sino-US Economic and Trade Dialogue: How do the two countries "go towards each other"?

  China News Service, Shanghai, October 29th, title: China-US Economic and Trade Dialogue: How do the two countries "go towards each other"?

  China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

  The Sino-US relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. Whether China and the United States can "walk in halfway" to a large extent affects the future of the world.

The second Sino-US Economic and Trade Forum of the European and American Alumni Association was held in Shanghai on the 29th. Chinese and American experts and representatives started a dialogue on this.

  "Hook up again"?

There is no "decoupling" between China and the United States

  Since the beginning of this year, after the Sino-US economic and trade team restarted the exchanges, the communication between the two sides has advanced to deeper and more specific areas.

U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi recently mentioned that the U.S. and Chinese economies are "re-linked."

  Michael Rosenthal, chairman of the International Investment and Economic Enterprise Business Federation, said that data show that in recent years, both trade and direct investment between the United States and China have grown steadily, and this year has even seen a relatively high growth rate.

"I don't think there is a decoupling between the United States and China, and I don't think the United States and China need to be linked again."

  Rosenthal cited statistics from the US-China Business Council that 95% of American companies made profits in China last year, and 64% of companies believe that their business will develop further in the future.

The data from the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai is also very similar. Most American companies believe that corporate revenue will increase in the next five years; 60% of companies plan to increase investment in China.

  Manuel C. Menendez, the founder and CEO of MCM Holding Group, also told a reporter from China News Agency: “I don’t think we (the U.S. and China) have ever been decoupled.” The U.S.-China economy has been They are interdependent and intertwined.

He said that he does not think there is a possibility of decoupling between the United States and China.

  Samuel Thomas Overholt, the business director of Yuanhaiying Investment Consulting Firm and senior strategic adviser in the field of Sino-US government affairs and economic trade, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from China News Agency on the margins of the meeting that the United States and China have not really decoupled. Law actually means that US-China relations are slowly entering a virtuous circle, progressing forward rather than backwards.

  Removal of tariffs: the starting point for restarting Sino-US cooperation

  For some time, the China policy adopted by the United States has caused serious difficulties in Sino-US relations.

How to break this problem?

  Ou Yongming believes that the most direct and best way is for the United States to unilaterally abolish all additional tariffs.

This is most in line with the economic interests of the United States.

The United States is currently facing greater inflationary pressure, and the additional tariffs imposed on Chinese goods are one of the reasons for this greater pressure.

And in the short to medium term, this is also an area where the United States and China are more likely to reach agreement.

Of course, whether it can be realized depends on how the domestic politics develops in the United States, and there may be a turning point after the mid-term elections in the United States in 2022 at the earliest.

  Guan Tao, global chief economist and managing director of BOC International Securities Co., Ltd., believes that the United States should abolish additional tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as possible. This is a very important starting point for the next step in reshaping China-US economic and trade relations.

The trade war is not a zero-sum game of whoever wins, but a lose-lose result.

  The US research results show that after the tariffs are imposed, most of them are actually borne by US consumers and US companies.

The report released by the US-China Business Council this year shows that the real economy of the United States has fallen by US$108 billion, and at its peak it has reduced 245,000 jobs.

  Trade and cooperation: expanding positive factors

  Over the past 30 years, trade and cooperation have brought huge dividends to both China and the United States.

  Shaun Rein, founder and managing director of the China Market Research Group, and author of the international bestsellers "The End of Cheap China" and "The End of Copycat China", said that without China, the United States would not have had such a situation in the past 30 years. With economic growth, it is impossible that so many middle class can afford Apple and Nike products.

Similarly, in the 1970s, China was still a relatively poor country, and its development required a lot of capital, many of which came from the United States.

There is no doubt that both countries have benefited from trade and cooperation.

  In an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Agency, Lei Xiaoshan said that now the United States and China should strengthen cooperation in environmental protection and business.

On the one hand, in the past decade or so, China has made great achievements in the field of environmental protection, and the United States and China have potential for cooperation.

On the other hand, the current US business community does not see China as a threat, but as an opportunity. This is also a breakthrough in US-China cooperation.

  Michael Rosenthal also believes that the United States and China are generally positive in terms of business, and lowering tariffs is beneficial to the United States.

He called for more free trade.

"Free trade between countries will reduce international conflicts, because trade forms links between countries and gives every country the incentive to avoid wars with trading partners. This has been proven by history."

  Liu Jun, vice chairman and president of the Bank of Communications, said that there should be no irreconcilable contradictions between China and the United States.

The more frequent trade activities, the easier it is to achieve peace.

He pointed out that in the context of carbon neutrality, the space for cooperation between China and the United States is broader, especially in the fields of energy response to gas change and green finance, which are expected to achieve greater breakthroughs.

(over)