Development and Reform Commission in-depth study of coal price intervention measures, steam coal prices "cut in half"
According to news from the National Development and Reform Commission on the 28th, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission held consecutive meetings yesterday, inviting economic and legal experts, as well as some coal and power industry associations and companies, to study how to define the criteria for judging coal companies to drive up prices and make huge profits.
The meeting listened to reports on coal production and operation by relevant industry associations and enterprises in recent years, focused on the reasonable price range and profit margin that should be maintained to promote the coordinated and sustainable development of the coal industry and downstream power industries, and focused on identifying coal companies to drive up prices. , Specific identification standards and methods for profiteering.
According to incomplete statistics from a reporter from China Business News, this is the 29th coal-related article on the official WeChat account of the National Development and Reform Commission in the past ten days.
Such intensive deployment of measures to stabilize coal prices and guarantee supply has had a greater impact on market expectations.
The coal "three brothers" fell across the board
On the afternoon of October 28, the main contract of thermal coal futures of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange opened the limit of falling, and the decline quickly narrowed to 7%.
Since then, the decline has expanded again to 11.49%, closing at 1051.8 yuan/ton.
It is worth noting that the main contract of thermal coal futures has fallen from the highest price of 1982 yuan/ton on October 19 to the current 1051.8 yuan/ton, a drop of 47%, which is almost "halved."
The main coking coal and coke futures contracts have fallen by more than 30% from the high on October 19 to the close of the night on the 27th.
In the A-share market, the coal sector suffered a heavy setback on October 28, leading the decline in the stock market, reappearing a stop-down trend.
Among them, many stocks such as Yunmei Energy and Lanhua Science and Technology have dropped their limits, and Yanzhou Coal and Pingmei's shares fell more than 9.90%.
Wind data shows that the coal index fell 6.45% to 6176.53, and fell 21.4% in the past 20 trading days.
In addition, coal spot trading prices also fell.
According to the Ordos Daily, on October 27, Du Huiliang, deputy secretary of the Ordos Municipal Party Committee and Acting Mayor, presided over the city's coal supply and stable price dispatch meeting.
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Energy Bureau Director Wang Jinbao and Deputy Director Zhang Zhanjun made demands. Deputy Mayor Liu of the Ordos Municipal Government took specific measures to stabilize supply and insuring prices, requiring serious implementation in accordance with the requirements of "one drop, two increases and two guarantees".
First, it is required to reduce the coal price of 5,500 calories to below 1,200 yuan/ton by 5 pm that day, and implement 7 "immediately" conscientiously.
The second is to increase production capacity and increase output.
The third is to ensure supply and ensure safety.
According to a news from China’s Taiyuan Coal Trading Center on October 27, in order to ensure the smooth operation of the economy and society, to ensure the safety of energy supply, and to ensure the warmth of the people through the winter, Jinneng Holding Group promised that the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the pit will not exceed 1,200 this winter and next spring. Yuan / ton.
A person familiar with the matter told the CBN reporter that the unified price limit of 1200 yuan/ton in many places is in response to the recent National Development and Reform Commission's relevant meeting to "reduce the coal price of 5500 calories to below 1200 yuan/ton".
Next, regions such as Shaan, Jin, and Mongolia will take vigorous actions one after another as required.
Tighter "price limit order" may be introduced
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, on October 27, the National Development and Reform Commission convened the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal companies to discuss specific measures to intervene in coal prices.
The National Development and Reform Commission listened to the China Coal Industry Association and some key coal production companies on the current coal market and prices, combined with the coal production cost survey carried out in the previous period, and discussed relevant measures for coal price intervention, including price intervention. Specific issues such as scope, method, price level, implementation time and safeguard measures.
The black research team of Cinda Futures reported that according to market news, the National Development and Reform Commission set a unified benchmark price for thermal coal pits, which was 440 yuan per ton including tax, and the maximum increase was 20%, or 528 yuan.
Coal production enterprises can use the benchmark price as the basis to determine the specific pit-mouth price within the allowable floating range.
Based on this speculation, the price of coal arriving at Hong Kong will remain at around 800 to 900 yuan/ton.
The above research report believes that although the supply and demand gap in November and December has narrowed compared with October, there is still a gap of about 26 million tons of thermal coal throughout the fourth quarter.
Although new capacity may still be added in the future, given the tight supply and demand throughout the year this year, resulting in more coal inventory consumption, the short-term increase in supply will not be able to reverse the supply and demand pattern in the fourth quarter.
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told China Business News that compared to energy commodities such as oil and natural gas, coal has a lower degree of dependence on foreign sources. .
Even if coal is included in the range of commodities that stop profiteering, its essence is to reduce the degree of marketization to a certain extent, and it is a price-limiting behavior.
Lin Boqiang said that price limit is the most effective means of "controlling increases."
It is generally believed that the current cost of coal mining is around 200 yuan/ton, and different coal mines have different conditions, and various costs such as transportation have to be added to the power plant.
There is a green range in the trading price of spot coal, which is 450 to 650 yuan/ton.
For the coal industry, the transaction price in this range can fully reflect the production costs of domestic coal mines and accelerate the elimination of outdated coal production capacity; for the power industry, it is conducive to reducing procurement costs and improving the overall economic benefits of society.
According to the prediction of the China Coal Industry Association, as the production and operation activities of enterprises continue to resume, China's macro economy is expected to maintain a stable recovery trend.
All regions and departments will strengthen cross-cycle adjustments, strive to keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, and promote a stable and positive economy. It is expected that China's energy demand and power consumption will maintain rapid growth, which will support coal demand.
On the whole, it is expected that coal demand, especially coal demand for power generation and heating, will be relatively strong this winter and next spring, coal supply is expected to maintain growth, coal supply and demand will generally be tight, and coal prices may fluctuate at high levels.
Many industry insiders told reporters that in the long run, coal prices are still dominated by market supply and demand.
Although the government can adopt price-limiting measures to curb market speculation, if supply and demand are imbalanced, coal-related companies may take evasive measures to break away from price regulation.
Therefore, improving the supply capacity and improving demand management are still the focus of subsequent coal work.
(Author: Ma Chenchen)