The unemployment rate has fallen back to the level before the epidemic, and the new policy is on the way to reduce the burden and stabilize the job.

  Under the dual effects of the continuous economic recovery and the employment priority policy, China's employment situation in the first three quarters was better than expected, and the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas has fallen below the level of the same period before the epidemic.

In the next step, China will continue to effectively reduce the burden on enterprises and make every effort to stabilize and expand employment opportunities.

  Experts interviewed by China Business News believe that the current employment performance is better than the economic performance, and the downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter has not been clearly transmitted to the employment field.

However, small and micro enterprises and blue-collar groups with poor ability to resist risks need more support. The employment status of industries affected by the economic cycle and supervision, such as real estate, education and training, also need attention.

  Small, medium and micro enterprises are an important part of our country's market entities, and they are the top priority of securing employment.

In response to the current situation in which small, medium and micro enterprises are under greater operating pressure, the State Council executive meeting in the last two weeks has successively deployed policy measures to help companies relieve their difficulties.

  On the evening of the 27th, the National Standing Committee made the latest decision on the corporate income tax, domestic value-added tax, domestic consumption tax and accompanying urban construction and maintenance tax for small, medium and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter of this year, as well as individual industrial and commercial households, individual proprietorships and partnership enterprises. The personal income tax paid (excluding the personal income tax withheld and paid by them) is subject to tax deferment.

Employment performance is better than expected

  Both official and private think tanks show that China’s employment data in the third quarter was not affected by the decline in GDP growth.

The data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security at a press conference on the 27th showed that the completion of new jobs in cities and towns across the country was faster than the schedule, reaching 10.45 million from January to September, completing 95% of the target tasks.

The surveyed unemployment rate in cities and towns across the country fell back to the pre-epidemic level, with an average of 5.0% in the third quarter, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the same period in 2019.

Among them, the urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 4.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

  Song Xin, deputy director of the Employment Promotion Department of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said that as China’s economy continues to recover, the policy of reducing burdens, stabilizing jobs and expanding employment continues to be implemented, and all-round employment services continue to develop. The employment situation remains generally stable and better than expected, and resumed in the third quarter. The situation is more positive.

  The China Employment Research Institute of Renmin University of China recently released the third quarter "China Employment Market Climate Report" also showed that the CIER (China Employment Climate Index) for the third quarter of 2021 was 2.15, which was higher than 2.09 in the previous quarter and 1.89 in the same period last year.

  Zeng Xiangquan, director of the China Employment Research Institute, told CBN that compared with the same period last year, the number of recruitment needs has increased, the number of job applicants has decreased, and the employment prosperity index has rebounded significantly year-on-year. At present, China's employment prosperity index is still at a high level.

  Wang Pingping, director of the Population and Employment Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that in the first three quarters, economic operations continued to recover and the employment situation continued to improve.

Entering the third quarter, the unemployment rate among young people has risen due to the concentration of a large number of college graduates seeking employment during the graduation season, which drove the unemployment rate surveyed in July to 5.1%.

In August, as graduates began to find jobs, the youth unemployment rate dropped significantly. However, due to the spread of epidemics and floods in the country, the unemployment rate of the main working-age population increased, and the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was the same as in July.

In September, as the work of graduates was implemented and the impact of the epidemic and the flood season subsided, the surveyed unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from August.

  CICC's research report stated that since the beginning of this year, China has shown a pattern of weak economy and not weak employment.

The employment performance in the first three quarters was better than the economic performance, reflecting the support brought by the employment policy and the platform economy.

  Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, believes that the economy has declined but the employment situation has improved. The first is that the employment priority policy is actively playing a role. China has adopted a series of measures to stabilize employment and encourage enterprises to increase employment; the second is the emergence of the economy. The decline does not mean that the endogenous power of our economy is insufficient, and that the endogenous power of our country is still strong.

For these reasons, companies have responded to national policies, stabilized jobs, and stabilized their expectations for economic growth.

  However, Yao Kai, director of the Global Science and Innovation Talent Development Research Center of Fudan University, told China Business News that although active employment policies and increased fiscal expenditures have fully tapped the potential for employment, etc., it has brought about short-term economic weakness and employment is not weak. .

But in the long run, only by increasing the total amount and increment of economic development can the number and quality of jobs be increased.

Pay attention to job loss under industry supervision

  Under the background of a good overall employment situation, there are also some industries that have experienced job losses due to the economic cycle and strengthened supervision. Among them, the education and training and real estate industries are more prominent; in addition, the government has a social security rights for employees of platform companies. The protection of the platform also leads to higher employment costs for platform companies, which will also have a certain impact on employment.

  Zhang Chenggang, director of the China New Employment Form Research Center of Capital University of Economics and Business, said that China is currently in a period of superimposition of the impact of the epidemic and economic transformation and upgrading.

At this special stage, some industries that benefited from economic transformation and upgrading, such as advanced manufacturing, showed strong demand.

The continued high level of international trade has pushed up the demand for the processing industry and manufacturing.

At the same time, in industries affected by economic transformation and upgrading, industries affected by the epidemic, and industries that have strengthened policy supervision, the employment of laborers has been greatly affected.

  The CICC research report shows that in recent years, the scale of China's education service industry market has expanded year by year, and the "double reduction" policy may bring about adjustments in education enterprises.

As of 2019, the market size of China's education service industry is 3 trillion yuan, and the K12 after-school tutoring market will be about 530 billion yuan in 2020.

Among them, mega and large institutions account for 10%, and the remaining 90% of the market entities are small, medium and micro institutions.

With policy adjustments and corresponding transformation of education and training institutions, small, medium and micro institutions may be even more affected.

The positions directly affected include K12 faculty, operations, and sales positions.

  The report on China's job market prosperity also stated that in the third quarter, the number of people in the education/training/academies industry had significantly tightened.

Affected by the "double reduction" policy, the number of recruitment needs and job applicants in this industry has been declining month by month, and the number of occupational recruitment needs and job applicants such as primary and secondary school teachers, tutors, and academic management personnel have shown a downward trend.

  In the context of stricter real estate policies, the pressure on employment in the real estate industry has increased. Not only is the number of employees in real estate companies declining, it has also affected the real estate agency industry. Shells are not spared either.

  The platform economy and flexible employment development provide workers with more employment options, and are the main source of the rapid growth of new urban jobs in China. The rapid development of new business formats and new models has driven the increase of new jobs.

Since the beginning of this year, the rapid development of live streaming and online shopping has also led to the increase of employees in related industries.

  Improving the social security rights of flexible employees is an important task for expanding the coverage of social security this year.

On July 16, the seven departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Implementing the Responsibilities of Online Catering Platforms and Effectively Protecting the Rights and Interests of Food Delivery Servicemen", urging the platform and third-party cooperation units to participate in social insurance for food deliverymen who establish labor relations, and supporting others Take-out food delivery staff participate in social insurance.

If platform companies implement this document, it will increase the employment cost of the platform to a certain extent. The impact of this policy on platform employment needs to continue to be observed.

Small and micro enterprises are still under pressure

  Zeng Xiangquan said that further attention should be paid to the impact of the slowdown in economic growth on small and micro enterprises. In the third quarter, the number of small and micro enterprise recruitment needs dropped by nearly 20% year-on-year, and the employment prosperity index was also lower than the same period last year.

  Zhang Chenggang said that the current operating pressures of small, medium and micro enterprises are still relatively high.

Small and medium-sized enterprises are the mainstay of absorbing employment.

At present, SMEs are under pressure, profit margins are low, and demand for recruitment has not yet recovered, which may have a certain impact on future employment.

  The CICC report also stated that individual industrial and commercial households, small and micro enterprises, etc. are facing operational and employment pressures after the epidemic.

As of 2021, there are more than 95 million individual industrial and commercial households in China, and more than 200 million people are employed.

These self-employed businesses are concentrated in offline service industries, including wholesale and retail (49.2%), accommodation and catering (23.8%), resident services (8.2%), etc.

The operation of the offline service industry has been continuously affected by the epidemic, and small and medium-sized enterprises have shown a pattern of oversupply of labor.

  On October 20, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that protecting market entities such as small, medium and micro enterprises is guaranteeing employment, which is also conducive to increasing supply and stabilizing prices.

It is necessary to adopt multiple strategies and increase targeted efforts to help companies relieve their difficulties.

To prevent the transmission of bulk commodity prices to downstream industries, which puts small, medium and micro enterprises under cost pressure, step up research on inclusive policies including phased tax and fee reductions, and encourage local governments to reduce or exempt small, medium and micro enterprises in housing rents, water and electricity bills, etc. Support, reduce the burden on enterprises, and help overcome difficulties.

Promote the development of small, medium and micro enterprises in the direction of "specialization, specialization and innovation" to enhance market competitiveness.

  Song Xin said that in the next step, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will take the implementation of the "14th Five-Year" employment promotion plan as the lead to ensure the overall stability of employment.

Specifically, the first is to make every effort to stabilize the position.

We will continue to implement policies such as reducing burdens, stabilizing jobs, and expanding employment, effectively reduce the burden on enterprises, and stabilize and expand employment.

  Wang Pingping said that stable employment still requires precise efforts, and efforts must be made from both sides of the labor market demand and supply to ensure a stable employment situation.

Continue to implement various employment stabilization policies, support enterprises to stabilize jobs, promote entrepreneurship to drive employment, and expand employment channels; strengthen precise assistance to key groups such as college graduates, and improve the quality of employment services; implement the "Skills China Action" through large-scale Large-scale vocational skill training improves the skill quality of workers.

(Author: Guo Jinhui)

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