The amendments of the Bank of Spain to the Government: less growth, lag compared to Europe and defense of the labor reform

• PGE The incessant cut in growth: AIReF also lowers its forecasts in a very notable way

• PGE The Bank of Spain anticipates a sharp cut in the growth forecast and puts revenue in doubt

It was the first of the long series of appearances that in these days are being carried out by presidents of agencies, supervisors and secretaries of State to analyze and reel off the draft General State Budgets (PGE) of 2022. And already in that initial appointment,

: neither the growth will be as expected nor the recovery is being so remarkable nor the revenues will be, most likely, the predicted ones.

The person in charge of dismantling the public accounts in such a direct way was, in addition, the governor of the Bank of Spain, Pablo Hernández de Cos, that is, the last person in charge of the most powerful study service in the country. But it is also that, in his subsequent intervention, he did not avoid referring to the labor reform in the midst of the internal confrontation of the Government before its possible repeal. And he was also very clear about this: "

." That is, it should not be repealed, but rather "daring" reforms to tackle, for example, the problems of duality of contracts.

The beginning of Hernández de Cos's intervention left little doubt from the beginning as to what the BdE's assessment of the accounts is and, specifically, of the macroeconomic framework on which they are based. First, he pointed out that "

", and showed that Spain has lagged behind Europe: "The level of output in the second quarter still presented a gap of 8.4 percentage points compared to that observed at end of 2019. That gap was 2.5 percentage points in the euro area ”.

He then went on to cite the points for which he advanced a "

" in growth forecasts for Spain. Namely: the historical cut of the National Institute of Statistics (INE); "Bottlenecks in industry"; and "the insufficiency of the supply of some goods and services to supply the demand has generated an increase in prices."

Hernández de Cos did not offer specific figures, but he did cite that the

panel of forecasts

has lowered its growth estimate for this year to 5.5% and that the data for 2022 remains slightly above 6%. These numbers contrast and question the macro picture, according to which the rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be 6.5% this year and up to 7% in 2022. And the revision of figures is also online with what hours later the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) pointed out. Its president, Cristina Herrero, announced in the same Budget Committee that the agency is reducing

to that same

.

In short, all of them very far from official forecasts.

These amendments, both by the Bank of Spain and the Fiscal Authority,

.

The First Vice-President of the Government and Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, participated in the high-level forum

, in which the Commissioner of Economy of the European Commission, Paolo Gentiloni, or the president of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, and he limited himself to pointing out the need to develop indicators beyond GDP so that the potential growth of the countries can be valued «adequately».

Something more specific was his Secretary of State for the Economy and Business Support, Gonzalo García de Andrés, who intervened in the same series of appearances in Congress to maintain that the Government's forecasts, both for this year and for 2022, are «

”, reports Europa Press. When asked about the negative review of the Bank of Spain, he replied that the best way to make macroeconomic forecasts is not "to be raising or lowering them" in line with "volatile" elements, especially in the current context of the pandemic that has given rise to rate of change in many data that has never been seen.

García de Andrés also defended that the "reactivation" of the economy

in the labor market with a level of affiliation that already exceeds that of 2019. However, what is not The head of the Economy mentioned is that in this recovery the hiring of the public sector has a lot of weight and that the private sector, as confirmed by Funcas or the CEOE, still has an important distance to return to the point prior to the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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