24 provinces announced their GDP in the first three quarters, and key shortcomings in the western economy appear under the epidemic

  As of October 24, 24 provinces across the country have released economic data for the first three quarters of this year.

On the whole, the economic growth rate of the eastern region is leading, and the growth rate of the western region is relatively lagging.

Judging from the two-year average growth rate, the situation where the western region leads the way is also changing.

The normalization of the epidemic has exposed the key shortcomings of economic growth in the western region.

The lead in the West has changed

  Among the 24 provinces that have released economic data, 9 provinces are higher than or equal to the national GDP growth rate of 9.8%. They are Hubei, Hainan, Beijing, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Shanghai. The speeds are 18.7%, 12.80%, 10.70%, 10.50%, 10.20%, 10.20%, 10.20%, 9.90% and 9.80%.

  Among the top nine provinces in terms of growth rate, only one is from the western region-Chongqing, which ranks eighth.

Moreover, major economic provinces such as Zhejiang and Shandong have not yet released data for the first three quarters, while Zhejiang's growth rate in the first half of the year ranked among the top three in the country, second only to Hubei and Hainan.

  In fact, since the beginning of this year, the economic growth rate in the western region has generally been lower than the national growth rate.

Looking at Sichuan Province, which has the largest economic aggregate in the west, in the first quarter of this year, the national GDP grew by 18.3%, and Sichuan grew by 15.8%. The difference between the two was 2.5%; in the first half of this year, the difference between the two was 0.6%; in the first three quarters, the difference was still There is a difference of 0.5%.

  Zeng Zhaoning, vice president of the Shaanxi Economics Society and a professor at Northwest Petroleum University, told China Business News that the impact of the epidemic last year in the western region was relatively small, while the eastern region was relatively large. Therefore, the western region was relatively high. The base number, which has affected the growth rate of the western region this year.

  However, judging from the two-year average growth rate in the first three quarters, the western region also showed signs of overall decline.

Although in the first three quarters there were 7 provinces in the western region higher than the country’s two-year average growth rate of 5.2%, their advantages compared to the eastern region have shrunk, and the ranking of Guizhou province, which has maintained a long-term growth rate, has also fallen by many places. Hainan, Provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang became the fastest provinces.

  Among these 24 provinces, the average GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of this year was two years. Hainan and Jiangsu in the east were 6.8% and 6.3%, respectively, ranking the top two in the country. Chongqing and Guizhou in the west grew by 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively. , Ranking fifth or sixth in the country.

  In addition, as the leader in the northwest, Shaanxi's economic growth rate in the first three quarters ranked second among the 24 provinces that have been announced, only higher than Qinghai.

In the first three quarters, Shaanxi Province achieved a GDP of 2,119.318 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% at comparable prices, an average growth of 4.1% in two years, and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the average growth rate of the two years in the first half of the year.

  Zeng Zhaoning said that from the perspective of investment and consumption, Shaanxi's indicators have fallen sharply.

In the first three quarters of this year, Shaanxi’s fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 0.3%. In the first half of this year, these two indicators were 10% and 4.9%, respectively.

In addition, the province's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 741.578 billion yuan, an increase of 12.0% year-on-year, and an average increase of 0.8% in two years.

  The problem of negative investment growth also appeared in Guizhou.

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets in Guizhou Province fell by 9.4% over the same period of the previous year.

Among them, the investment in the primary industry increased by 21.8% over the same period of the previous year, the investment in the secondary industry increased by 9.3%, and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 15.6%.

  Huang Yong, deputy dean of the Guizhou Academy of Social Sciences, told CBN that under special circumstances, some provinces have repeated epidemics, which will have a greater impact on their economic growth data.

Excluding these factors, the western region still relies on investment.

The "troika" in the eastern region has developed relatively evenly, which is different from the growth momentum of the western region.

  Huang Yong said that the eastern region is where the population flows in. Both emerging groups and young people flow in, and the income level is higher than that in the west. Therefore, consumption will maintain a steady growth momentum.

Under the epidemic, the increase in foreign demand has stimulated export growth.

Moreover, these two aspects have also promoted the steady growth of investment.

Urgent need for structural transformation and upgrading

  After the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic growth rate of the western region began to be higher than that of the eastern region. Under the impact of the epidemic last year, the economic growth of the western region was also faster than that of the eastern region. The reason is that the bottleneck problem in the western region itself has also been exposed.

  Yi Xiaoguang, director of the Chongqing Comprehensive Economic Research Institute, also told China Business News that in recent years, the high growth in the western region has mainly come from undertaking domestic and foreign industrial transfers, and more is the scale growth, and the technological innovation ability is not strong.

Affected by the epidemic now, production and living spaces have been compressed, and large-scale investment promotion is difficult to sustain.

  Huang Yong believes that after the epidemic, the performance of economic growth in the eastern and western regions basically lies in the gap between the industrial structure and the industrial level, as well as the difference in the growth mode.

  He believes that the biggest gap between the eastern and western regions lies in the manufacturing industry.

After the epidemic, the growth rate in the east has increased. This is reflected in the strength of the manufacturing industry in the east. It is closely related to its industrial layout and industrial chain, especially for final consumer goods. Under the influence of the epidemic, orders in the east have increased. The industries in the central and western regions are mostly based on raw materials, with insufficient deep processing and short industrial chains.

  From the data of the first three quarters, the manufacturing industry, especially the advanced manufacturing industry, played a key role in supporting the growth of the eastern region.

  For example, Beijing's industrial production is growing well, with high-end industries playing a leading role.

In the first three quarters, the added value of the industrial enterprises above designated size in Beijing increased by 38.7% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 17.7%.

Among the key industries, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 3.3 times year-on-year, an average increase of 1 time in two years; the computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 21.1% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 18.9%.

  Industry spurred the growth of Beijing’s GDP, which increased by 10.7% in the first three quarters.

Compared with the same period in 2019, the two-year average growth rate was 5.3%, which was 0.5% higher than that in the first half of the year.

  Jiangsu's leading growth rate also shows that industrial production has grown rapidly and advanced manufacturing has strong support.

In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Jiangsu Province increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and the average growth rate was 9.5% in the two years.

Among the 40 major industrial sectors, 36 industries have increased their value added year-on-year, with an increase of 90%.

  Not only that, Zeng Zhaoning also said that the tertiary industry also shows structural differences between the east and the west.

The service industry in the eastern coastal area is dominated by modern service industries such as finance and logistics, while the service industry in the western region is mainly traditional service industries such as catering, accommodation, and tourism, and these industries have been more affected by the epidemic.

  Zeng Zhaoning said that we are now building a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. The western region, which is dominated by an inward-oriented economy, should have favorable conditions for the macroeconomic situation.

However, there is a big gap between the west and the east in terms of capital, technology, and talent. It is still in the energy and resource base and primary products, and the degree of marketization is still not high.

  Yi Xiaoguang said that on the whole, the western region's economy is still performing well and has maintained a recovery trend.

What needs to be resolved in the western region now is to continue to advance the supply-side structural reforms while fighting the recurrence of the epidemic.

In the future, there will be more need for intensive growth, accelerating the promotion of scientific and technological innovation, and opening up more vigorously to the outside world.

  "Even if there is no epidemic, industrial transformation and upgrading in the western region is imminent." Huang Yong said.

(Author: Li Xiuzhong)

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