"Golden Nine" in the property market is inadequate
In September, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings remained stable and declined ——
According to statistics on the changes in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in September showed a slight downward trend from the previous month, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.
According to Sheng Guoqing, the chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales prices of new commercial residential and second-hand residential buildings in various tier cities remained flat or decreased month-on-month in September.
According to estimates, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in first-tier cities has changed from a 0.3% increase in the previous month to the same level; the sales price of second-hand housing in first-tier cities has changed from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to a decrease of 0.4%.
The sales price of newly-built commercial housing in second-tier cities has changed from a 0.2% increase in the previous month to the same level; the sales price of second-hand housing has changed from a flat in the previous month to a decrease of 0.1%.
The sales price of newly built commercial housing in third-tier cities fell from the same level last month to a decrease of 0.2%; the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.2% from the previous month, and the rate of decline was 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous month.
The year-on-year increase in the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in various tier cities continued to fall.
In September, the sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities rose by 5.3% and 7.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the increase was 0.4 and 1.4 percentage points lower than the previous month.
The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in second-tier cities rose by 4.1% and 3.0% year-on-year, respectively, and the increase was 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month.
The sales prices of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities rose by 2.3% and 1.4% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate dropped 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.
The reporter combed and found that among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the price of newly-built commercial housing in 36 cities fell compared with the previous month, with 7 flat and 27 rising.
In terms of second-hand housing, 52 cities have seen price declines compared with the previous month, with 1 showing the same level and 17 increasing prices.
In September, the number of cities where the price of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing fell from the previous month continued to increase. In July and August, the number of cities where the price of new housing fell from the previous month was only 16 and 20 respectively, and the number increased to 36 in September.
There were only 26 and 34 cities where the price of second-hand housing fell month-on-month in July and August, respectively, and the number increased to 52 in September.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, believes that the tightening of real estate credit is the main reason for the market cooling.
Entering the third quarter, the bank lending cycle is generally more than 3 months, and some cities even need more than 6 months. The queue of mortgages in some hot cities in East China and South China is serious, which affects the property market.
Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the People's Bank of China, said recently that the amount of personal housing loans issued in the first three quarters remained stable, basically matching the amount of commercial housing sales in the same period.
Among them, housing prices in a few cities have risen too fast, personal housing loans are subject to some constraints, and the rate of housing price increases has been suppressed.
After housing prices stabilize, the supply-demand relationship of housing loans in these cities will also return to normal.
Recently, individual real estate companies such as Evergrande have experienced a debt crisis. Many people in the industry believe that this is also a reason for the decline in market volume.
In this regard, Zou Lan said that the problem of Evergrande Group is an isolated phenomenon in the real estate industry.
After the macro-control of real estate in recent years, especially after the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism, the domestic real estate market has maintained stable land prices, housing prices, and expectations. Most real estate companies are operating steadily and have good financial indicators. The real estate industry is generally healthy.
The spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics Fu Linghui said on October 19 that this year, through the improvement of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market, unreasonable demand has been suppressed, rigid demand has been promoted steadily, and some real estate companies have been restricted from blindly expanding by borrowing. The upward trend has stabilized, and real estate investment, sales and housing prices have gradually stabilized.
In the next stage, with multi-agent supply and multi-channel guarantees, the housing system for both purchase and rent will continue to improve, market players will become more rational, and the real estate market is expected to maintain stable development.
In the first three quarters, the added value of real estate increased by an average of 4.8% in two years, a drop of 1.3 percentage points from the first half of the year. The impact of real estate on economic growth is generally limited.
Reporter Kang Shu