Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, October 19 -
Question: read the Chinese economy "Autumn News", economic experts say
Xinhua News Agency reporters Xie Xiyao and Zhou Yuan
In the severe and complex domestic and international environment, China's economy grew by 9.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, with an average growth rate of 5.2% over the two years.
Among them, the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 4.9%.
How to view the current economic trends?
What is the stamina of China's economic growth?
Many economists said that it is necessary to take a comprehensive and objective view of the quarterly economic slowdown. It can be seen that the Chinese economy is still in a good state of recovery, and there is no problem in maintaining steady and healthy growth.
Data show that in the first, second and third quarters of this year, China’s economy grew at 18.3%, 7.9%, and 4.9% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rates were 5.0%, 5.5%, and 4.9%, respectively.
"From the two-year average growth rate, the gap between the highest growth rate and the lowest growth rate is 0.6%, which is relatively stable." Xu Xianchun, professor of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center of Tsinghua University Say.
Affected by last year's base, "high before low" is the basic judgment of experts on China's economic trend this year.
"It's not just that China's economy has fallen from the second quarter to the third quarter, but the recovery of the entire world economy is in a slow decline." Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher in the Counselor's Office of the State Council, said that the slowdown in China's economic growth in the third quarter is due to both international factors and some factors. Domestic factors are more of a domestic period and short-term factors.
From an international perspective, the global epidemic is still spreading, and liquidity is superimposed. This has led to high prices of bulk raw materials in the international market, including oil, natural gas, ferrous metals, coal, etc., and this has been transmitted to the country to raise the operating costs of some companies; from a domestic perspective , Some areas have been affected by multiple impacts such as the epidemic and floods, and the contradiction between power supply and demand has become more prominent.
Xu Xianchun said that there were multiple factors for the slowdown in economic growth in the third quarter. Incidental factors such as tight energy supply and the impact of the epidemic flood were phased. Generally speaking, China's economy is still very resilient.
Experts said that from the cumulative perspective of the first three quarters, China's economic growth rate is still relatively high, laying the foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target.
"To grasp the overall economic situation of a country, the key is to grasp the four major indicators of economic growth, employment, prices and international payments." Yao Jingyuan said that China's economic growth in the first three quarters was still within the expected range; 10.45 million new jobs were created. , To complete 95% of the annual target; the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.6%, the overall price level is still low; imports and exports and the use of foreign capital still maintain high growth.
"These four indicators tell us that the Chinese economy is currently in a good state of recovery."
Xu Xianchun believes that it is necessary to see not only the pressure from the third quarter economic data, but also the endogenous driving force of economic development.
Continuous optimization of the industrial structure-in the first three quarters, the value added of the manufacturing industry accounted for 27.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the same period of the previous year; the value added of the high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 20.1% year-on-year, faster than all industries above designated size; the service industry The contribution rate of growth to economic growth was 54.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the first half of the year.
The demand structure continues to improve-in the first three quarters, the final consumption contribution rate was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. Upgraded consumption and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly; investment in education and health increased by 10.4% and 31.4% year-on-year respectively , Faster than all investment growth.
New kinetic energy accelerates growth-in the first three quarters, the output of new energy vehicles and industrial robots increased by 172.5% and 57.8% year-on-year, respectively.
Information technology has penetrated extensively, and new business models and new models such as online live broadcast and platform economy have emerged rapidly.
"The decline in economic growth does not mean that the endogenous power of the Chinese economy is insufficient." Yao Jingyuan said that at present, it is necessary to deal with phased contradictions and temporary problems, but also to make greater efforts in structural reform and structural optimization. Strength continuously stimulates new economic momentum and stabilizes the sustained recovery trend.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter and early next year, experts said that despite the downward pressure on China's economic growth, it can still maintain a relatively stable growth trend.
"Developing the economy is like driving a car. First of all, we must steer the steering wheel well. Where do we drive the steering wheel? We must drive in the direction of high-quality development." Yao Jingyuan said that the next step is to adhere to the concept of green development and use dialectical thinking to treat and handle the phases. The relationship between tasks and long-term goals is to properly handle the relationship between stable economic growth and structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, so as to ensure the stable and healthy development of China's economy.
In addition, Yao Jingyuan believes that from the perspective of the "troika" of investment, consumption, and exports, it is necessary to further give play to the key role of investment in economic growth, increase the layout of local government special debts to expand effective investment, and at the same time strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic growth. Increase the role of exports in stimulating economic growth.
Stable investment not only stimulates current domestic demand, but also supports future development, and there is huge room for it.
Xu Xianchun suggested that the next step should be to nurture new momentum from many aspects, including actively promoting the digital transformation of enterprises, increasing support for innovation and research and development, vigorously promoting key core technology research, continuing to optimize the business environment and policy guarantee system, and continuing to support overseas warehouses and cross-border warehouses. E-commerce, Industrial Internet, etc.
"The new economic momentum plays an important role in economic growth and will certainly inject lasting impetus into the future development of China's economy."Keywords: economy, china, quarters, growth, environment, reporters, xu xianchun, growth rate, autumn news, xie xiyao, experts, question, yao jingyuan, xinhua news agency, zhou yuan