(Economic Observation) China's first three quarters of consumption "report card" released, how to further enhance consumption power?

  China News Service, Beijing, October 19th. The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently released economic performance data for the first three quarters, showing that market sales in the first three quarters have maintained growth, with total retail sales of consumer goods 3185.7 billion yuan (RMB, the same below), a year-on-year increase of 16.4%. An average increase of 3.9% over the two years.

How to treat China's consumption performance in the first three quarters?

  Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, pointed out that from the perspective of consumption, employment is basically stable and the income of residents continues to increase, which is conducive to the enhancement of consumption power.

China's epidemic prevention and control situation is generally stable, the consumption environment has also improved, and social security has been continuously improved, which will also help increase residents' willingness to consume.

  Consumer demand plays a major role in driving economic growth.

Statistics show that in the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the first half of the year. Upgraded consumption and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly, and the retail sales of sports and entertainment products and cultural and office supplies increased year-on-year. Both growth rates exceeded 20%, and investment in high-tech industries increased by 18.7% year-on-year.

The national average per capita consumption expenditure increased by 15.8% year-on-year in nominal terms, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.7%, which was faster than in the first half of the year.

  In addition, new kinetic energy is growing rapidly.

Information technology has penetrated extensively, and new business models and new models such as online live broadcast and platform economy have emerged rapidly.

Statistics show that in the first three quarters, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 15.2% year-on-year, accounting for 23.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

  Nevertheless, we should be wary of the current downward pressure on the economy.

The Bank of China research shows that domestic demand is relatively sluggish.

In the first three quarters, total retail sales of consumer goods and investment in fixed assets increased by 16.4% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively; the two-year average growth rates were 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively, slowing down by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points from the first half of the year.

The epidemic has repeatedly caused continuous negative effects on service consumption and contact consumption, and the recovery of residents' income and consumption willingness has been slow, resulting in insufficient momentum for consumption recovery.

  Xu Xianchun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and director of the China Economic and Social Data Research Center of Tsinghua University, said that the downward pressure of the economy does exist, but China's economic development is very resilient. There are still many supporting factors for economic growth in the fourth quarter; for example, from a consumption perspective In the first three quarters, the national per capita consumption expenditure increased by 15.1% in real terms, and the average real growth in the two years was 3.7%.

Among them, the two-year average growth rate rebounded 0.5% from the first half of the year.

At the same time, the employment situation is generally stable; residents' income growth is also relatively stable.

Among the three major economic entities, the income growth of residents is relatively stable.

The overall situation of epidemic prevention and control is also stable, and residents' spending power and willingness to consume are expected to continue to pick up.

  "From the second quarter to the third quarter of the economic downturn, we need to see more of it as a short-term factor. As far as China's economy is concerned, there is no problem with endogenous power, and we have the ability to stabilize the downturn." Special researcher of the Counselor Office of the State Council of China Yao Jingyuan is also optimistic. From the current point of view, the epidemic has the greatest impact on consumption. Because of the needs of epidemic prevention and control, agglomeration consumption has been greatly affected, and the consumption of crowds such as tourism, catering, and film industries have all been affected.

However, with the effective implementation of epidemic prevention and control, consumption will gradually rise. "September is better than August, and consumption is expected to continue to rise. Therefore, China's economy will still maintain healthy and better growth."

What is the focus of boosting China's consumption in the next step?

  "In general, China's consumption base is still healthy." Wang Jingwen, a senior macro researcher at China Minsheng Bank, affirmed the economic situation and pointed out that from the survey of urban depositors in the third quarter of the People's Bank of China, the proportion of choosing "more savings" has increased compared with the second quarter. 1.4 percentage points to 50.8%, the proportion of "more consumption" decreased by 1.0 percentage point from the second quarter to 24.1%, and the gap between the two widened to 26.7 percentage points, which was significantly higher than the pre-epidemic level.

If the consumption potential is to be further exploited, in addition to the prevention and control of the epidemic, it is necessary to continue to take multiple measures to improve the consumption ability and willingness of residents.

  Debon Securities reminded that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for consumption. The combination of cold winter and traditional peak seasons and festivals may continue to drive consumer demand to maintain a not low level, but the impact of possible epidemic disturbances in autumn and winter still needs to be considered.

  Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that in the future, there will be three main aspects to support the stable recovery of consumption. One is to further enhance and stimulate traditional consumption; the other is to focus on emerging consumption; and the third is to focus on the infrastructure behind consumption.


Keywords: quarters, report card, state council of china, consumption, retail sales, market sales, growth rate, observation, china, consumption momentum, growth, half, consumption power, consumer goods, economy