What signals does the third quarter report convey to the Chinese economy?

(Economic Observer) What signals does the third quarterly report convey to the Chinese economy?

　　China News Service, Beijing, October 18 (Reporter Wang Enbo) The three quarterly report on China's economy, which has received much attention, was released on the 18th.

In the face of multiple tests such as the epidemic and flood, the Chinese economy has withstood the pressure and continued to signal that the overall recovery is maintained.

　　According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China that day, preliminary calculations show that China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth rate was 5.2%, which was 0.1 percentage point lower than the average two-year growth rate in the first half of the year.

　　Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, said frankly that after the third quarter, domestic and foreign risks and challenges have increased, the global epidemic has spread and spread, the recovery of the world economy has slowed, international commodity prices are operating at high levels, and parts of China have been affected by epidemics and floods. With multiple shocks, the pressure of economic restructuring and adjustment has appeared.

However, he also emphasized that the current major macroeconomic indicators of China's economy remain within a reasonable range, and the economic recovery trend continues.

　　For example, in terms of growth figures, affected by the base increase in the same period last year and the impact of the epidemic, the year-on-year growth rate of China's economy in the first three quarters has fallen from the first half of the year, but the momentum of expansion continued from the previous year, and the two-year average growth rate remained relatively fast. increase.

In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 9.8% year-on-year, which was higher than the expected target of more than 6%.

Among them, the third quarter increased by 4.9% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, with an average growth rate of 4.9% over the two years.

　　From the perspective of people's livelihood indicators, relevant guarantees are also powerful and effective.

In the first three quarters, 10.45 million new jobs were created in China's cities and towns, completing 95% of the annual target task; the average urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, which was lower than the expected target of about 5.5% for the whole year.

In the same period, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents increased by 10.4% in nominal terms over the same period last year, and the actual increase was 9.7% after deducting price factors, which was basically in line with economic growth.

　　From the perspective of economic structure, the quality and benefit of development have been continuously improved.

In the first three quarters, the proportion of China's manufacturing value added was 27.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the same period last year; the value added of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 20.1% year-on-year, faster than all industries above designated size.

In the same period, the final consumption contribution rate was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the first half of the year, and upgraded consumption and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly.

　　The above-mentioned series of figures show that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement continue to appear, and the characteristics of strong development resilience, great potential, and broad room for maneuver are still obvious.

However, it is undeniable that the international environment is unstable and there are many uncertain factors, the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven, and the "resonance" of internal and external risks makes China's economy face more challenges in maintaining stable operation.

　　A notable example is that in September, affected by factors such as the low level of prosperity in high-energy-consuming industries, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell below the threshold for the first time since March last year.

The survey results also show that more than 40% of the small companies reflect the high cost of raw materials, tight capital, and insufficient market demand. Some small companies face multiple difficulties in their production and operation.

　　According to Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, China's economy is expected to maintain a stable recovery in the next stage, but its trend is also affected by changes in the international economic and policy situation, the level of power supply and production recovery, the recovery of internal and external demand, and the trend of inflation. The impact of multiple factors such as market expectations.

To this end, macroeconomic policies must be well adjusted across cycles, further clarify the policy tone, stabilize market expectations and confidence, and make good use of policies when there is greater downward pressure.

　　Against this background, does the Chinese government have sufficient policy "stocks" to deal with possible challenges?

　　"The Chinese government has accumulated a wealth of control experience in long-term practice." Fu Linghui sent a "relaxed" signal to the market, saying that in recent years, on the basis of range control, China has strengthened targeted control and precise control and is fully capable of maintaining the economy. Operate in a reasonable range to promote sustained and healthy economic development.

He emphasized that at present, China's financial strength is continuously increasing, and there is still a lot of room for monetary policy. It can promptly introduce effective measures in accordance with changes in the situation to promote stable economic operation.

　　The research team of Zhixin Investment Research Institute judged that for the rest of this year, fiscal and monetary policies will drive China's economic growth.

Among them, the issuance of special bonds will speed up, major projects will accelerate, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment will rise; manufacturing profits will continue to rise, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment will also pick up.

In the fourth quarter, it is expected that under the steady and loose monetary policy, the strength of finance to promote economic growth will be further revealed, and the growth rate of credit cooperative financing may rebound.

(over)