The lack of control of public accounts: Treasury certifies that Spain will chain at least 17 years in deficit

• Politics The Government wants to collect more than 100,000 million in personal income tax at the expense of the middle and working class

• Budgets 2022 The Government's "prudent" forecast: 17,000 million more in taxes before its great tax reform

• Budget Plan The Government no longer supports Calviño's promise and delays the recovery of precovid levels to 2022

From 2008 to at least 2024. That is the time that Spain will accumulate in a budget deficit situation, that is,

, 17 years in which there have been alternations of Government, situations of crisis, recovery, growth and crisis again.

And in all of them, the result has been the same: budgetary deviation.

This is a devastating figure that, moreover, is very likely to grow even more, since it is very unlikely that the deficit situation will end in 2024. That year is only the last year for which the Ministry of Finance has an estimate of the deficit, as reflected in the draft General State Budgets (PGE) for 2022 that this week delivered in the Congress of Deputies.

But in that year, the figure will still be -3.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and, given the antecedents of Spain in general and of this Government in particular, it seems very feasible that the situation will continue in later years. Therefore, it is not far from unreasonable for

. What's more, it seems more than likely.

The situation of lack of control began with the first blows of the financial crisis, and the Government of

went from adding three consecutive years of historical surpluses to deviating 4.5%. Worse was the following year, when it

. Even more than that registered during the year of the pandemic.

That year 2009 was followed by three exercises between 9% and 10%, with a change of government in between.

The

and, despite the years of strong economic growth and recovery, its best figure was 3% in 2017. If compared with the set of years, it could reach to think that that figure was a success, but it is not like that at all.

And more if one takes into account the evolution among the rest of the European powers.

The embarrassment of 2019

The Executive of Sánchez, for its part, closed its first half year in office at 2.5%, which is the best data of the entire period analyzed. And already in 2019 something very representative of what Spain is in terms of budgetary balance happened. The Ministry of Finance first offered a figure of 2.6%, which was the first increase since 2012, but before which the department of Montero did not hesitate to point out that it was a "great effort to contain it." That statement already brought a certain blush, but the situation was even worse. Less than a month later,

and raised it to the final figure of 2.8%. The embarrassment was unquestionable.

This whole process meant that when the crisis derived from the coronavirus broke out, the public debt was 95.5% of GDP, leaving the Executive with a

. The rest of the powers had much more space, and in good part that is why the crisis in Spain was tougher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) itself certified that

to the economy. That was contested by the Ministry of Economy, since, in its opinion, the Records of Temporary Employment Regulation (ERTE) were not correctly accounted for. And it is true that many prestigious economists supported the affirmation of Vice President Calviño's team, highlighting at the same time the importance of that measure. But even so, the response was insufficient.

Now, Montero always emphasizes that he has the opportunity that the Socialist Executive will reduce the deficit by half in just two years. The Minister of Finance emphasizes that the PGE architecture itself "is already based on fiscal consolidation", but the reality is that the 2022 accounts

and all the correction will be due to economic growth itself .

The specific evolution, according to the estimate of the Treasury, is that it will go from 10.9% last year to 8.4% at the end of this year.

In 2022 the figure will be 5% of GDP, and that rate of reduction that Montero highlights so much will slow down very notably that year, since in 2023 the estimate is 4%.

And in 2024 the figure will be of the aforementioned 3.2%, a figure that will continue to be very bulky several years after the moment in which the coronavirus crisis is expected to be left behind, and that

: with hardly any margin for action.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

Know more

• Public deficit

• State's general budgets

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