Chinanews client, Beijing, October 14 (Reporter Xie Yiguan) Driven by the expansion of the year-on-year decline in pork prices, the national consumer price (CPI) growth rate continued to decline in September.

The current pig price has entered a "trough" in recent years, how will it affect the CPI trend in the future?

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

"Second Brother" rides on the slide, September's CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 14th, in September, the CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and it has fallen for four consecutive months.

Among them, food prices fell by 5.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.98 percentage points.

　　In food, the price of pork fell by 46.9%, and the rate of decrease was expanded by 2.0%, affecting the CPI drop by about 1.12%; the prices of freshwater fish, eggs and edible vegetable oil rose by 21.0%, 14.2% and 9.2%, respectively, and the growth rates all fell.

　　"According to estimates, of the 0.7% year-on-year increase in CPI in September, the carry-over impact of price changes last year was about 0, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the impact of the new price increase was about 0.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Percentage points." Dong Lijuan, senior statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, the same rate as last month.

Data map: Citizens of Zhengzhou City, Henan Province buy vegetables in a large supermarket.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Han Zhangyun

The month-on-month decline has expanded, and pork prices have entered a "trough"

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI went flat from a 0.1% increase in the previous month.

Among them, food prices changed from a 0.8% increase last month to a decrease of 0.7%, which affected the CPI drop by about 0.12 percentage points.

　　"In food, pork and aquatic products are in sufficient supply, and prices have fallen by 5.1% and 2.5% respectively, and the decline has been larger than the previous month." Dong Lijuan pointed out.

　　According to the monitoring of the National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork (white striped meat) in September was 19.94 yuan/kg, down 6.9% month-on-month and 57.9% year-on-year.

　　A reporter from Chinanews.com recently visited the supermarket and found that the current retail price of pork has entered a "trough" in recent years.

　　In a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing, on the 13th, the front and rear tip of pork were priced at 11.8 yuan per catty, and the pork belly was priced at 17.8 yuan per catty, which were 1 yuan and 2 yuan cheaper than at the end of September.

The picture shows the price of pork sold in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China News Service

Under the low pig price, how will the future CPI trend?

　　According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from October 4th to 10th, the national market price of edible agricultural products rose 0.2% from the previous week.

Among them, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was 4.61 yuan per kilogram, up 4.1%; the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits dropped slightly; the price of meat dropped overall, and the wholesale price of pork was 16.62 yuan per kilogram, down 2.8%.

　　In the face of pork prices "falling down endlessly", on October 10, the Ministry of Commerce, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other departments, purchased and stored 30,000 tons of central reserve pork, and deployed them in 12 provinces.

This is also the fourth batch of central reserve pork purchasing and storage this year.

　　"In the next few months, as the effect of purchasing, storing and supporting the market gradually appears, and the consumption of pork in the autumn and winter and the two seasons is booming and demand increases, the price of live pigs may gradually rise." Deputy Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, Level 1 Inspector Peng Shaozong said on September 16.

　　"With the recovery of stocks exceeding expectations and the downstream demand not being effectively released, pig prices have rebounded under heavy pressure. At present, pig prices have fallen to the starting point of this round of pig cycle, and the proportion of pork consumption in total household consumption is unlikely to be large in the short term. The rate is raised." Everbright Futures believes that based on the relatively high weight of pork consumption in the CPI index, it is expected that the CPI will not have the conditions for a substantial increase before the first quarter of next year.

　　According to Zhang Xiaochun, an analyst at Guolian Securities, in September, the carry-over factor further dropped by 0.2 percentage points and continued to be an important factor suppressing the year-on-year increase in CPI. In the fourth quarter, this factor may push up the year-on-year increase in CPI.

(over)