Forecast by economists: A shortage of materials costs a good 1 percent economic growth

According to the leading institutes, the growth of the German economy this year will be a number smaller than previously assumed in view of acute material shortages.

For the current year they are only expecting an increase in gross domestic product of 2.4 percent, people familiar with the figures told Reuters on Wednesday.

In the spring they had assumed 3.7 percent.

For 2022, they also raised their forecast from 3.9 to 4.8 percent, while they expect an increase of almost 2 percent for 2023.

Last year, the gross domestic product slumped by 4.6 percent due to the Corona crisis.

Bottlenecks in intermediate products such as semiconductors are currently hindering the industry.

The German car manufacturers can therefore deliver significantly fewer cars.

There are months of waiting for many models.

Relaxation in inflation?

The Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA) recently drastically reduced its forecast for 2021: Car production is expected to drop by 18 percent to 2.9 million vehicles.

The VDA had actually expected an increase of 3 percent compared to the previous year.

Because as early as 2020, car production had fallen by 24.6 percent to 3.5 million cars due to the pandemic.

Economists expect inflation to ease.

Due to higher energy prices, the rate of inflation this year, at an average of 3.0 percent, is likely to be as high as it has been for 27 years.

In the coming year, however, it should fall to 2.5 percent and then even noticeably below the two percent mark in 2023.

In September consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent, the fastest they have been since 1993.

This was also ensured by a number of special effects - such as the extremely low starting level for raw material prices, pandemic and lockdown-related catch-up effects or the temporary VAT cut in the fight against the Corona crisis in the second half of 2020.

The joint diagnosis is to be officially presented on Thursday.

It serves the federal government as the basis for its own projections, which in turn form the basis for the tax estimate.

The expert opinion is being prepared by the RWI in Essen, the DIW in Berlin, the Ifo Institute in Munich, the IfW in Kiel and the IWH in Halle.