Three economists won the Nobel Prize in Economics this year for their research in labor economics and their contribution to the methodology of causality

　　At 17:59 on the 11th, Beijing time, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awarded the 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics to David Card, Joshua D. Angrist and Guido. W. Inbens (Guido Imbens).

They were awarded for their research in labor economics through experimental methods and their contributions to the methodology of causality.

　　Winner’s research provides new insights into the labor market

　　Card was born in Guelph, Canada in 1956 and currently works at the University of California, Berkeley; Angrist was born in Ohio in 1960 and now works at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States; Inbens was born in Ai, the Netherlands in 1963 Enderhofen is currently working at Stanford University in the United States.

　　The Permanent Secretary of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Goran Hansson, said at a press conference that Card was awarded for his “empirical contribution to labor economics”, and Anglister and Inbens were awarded for his “methodological contribution to causality analysis”. Awarded.

　　The statement issued by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences on the same day pointed out that the research results of the three winners provided new insights into the labor market and demonstrated that conclusions about causality can be drawn through natural experimental research methods.

Related research methods have been extended to other fields and completely changed empirical research.

The statement said that many major issues in social sciences involve causality. This year's award-winning results show that natural experimental research methods can be used to answer related questions, similar to "medical clinical trials."

　　The statement also quoted Peter Fredericksson, chairman of the Nobel Prize in Economics Jury, saying that Card’s research on the core issues of society and the contributions of Angrist and Inbens to methodology show that natural experimental research methods are knowledge Rich source of.

Their research has greatly improved people's ability to answer important causal questions, which is of great benefit to society.

　　In an interview by telephone, Inbens said that he was "stunned" to hear the news of the award, and he was very happy to share the award with two other economists.

　　This year's Nobel Prize in Economics is 10 million Swedish kronor (approximately US$1.14 million). Card received half of the prize, and Angrist and Inbens will share the other half.

　　In the Nobel series of awards, the Economics Prize was not established in accordance with the will of the late Swedish chemist Alfred Nobel, but was established by the Swedish National Bank in 1968, and the prize money was paid by the Swedish National Bank.

　　The two awards are closely related to the Nobel Prize

　　According to a reporter from the Beijing Youth Daily, there are two major international awards that are closely related to the Nobel Prize in Economics.

　　The "Citation Laureates" (Citation Laureates) issued by Clarivate Analytics since 2002 has been called the "Nobel Prize Weathervane".

So far, 59 "Citation Laureates" winners have won the Nobel Prize.

　　It is understood that the "Citation Laureate Award" is mainly based on Web of Science papers and citation data, and selects top researchers with the most global influence in the four fields of physiology or medicine, physics, chemistry and economics.

The Nobel Prize does not limit the time for the winners to put forward theories or make contributions. Therefore, the "Citation Laureate" is not a prediction of the Nobel Prize of the year, but may be a long-term prediction.

　　In addition to the "Citation Laureate Award", the John Bates Clark Award issued by the American Economic Association is also one of the most important awards in the field of economics. The Clark Award is also known as the "Little Nobel Prize in Economics".

　　The Clark Award was established in 1947. Previously, it was issued every two years (not issued in 1953). Since 2009, it has been issued once a year. At present, 43 people have won the award.

It is understood that since the Nobel Prize was awarded, 40% of Clark Prize winners will win the Nobel Prize in Economics after an average of 22 years.

However, the Clark Prize’s prediction of the Nobel Prize has certain limitations, but the prize is only awarded to American scholars and young and middle-aged economists under the age of 40.

　　The Nobel Prize in Economics is often unexpected

　　Zhihu's answerer "ViaX Salt Fun Research and Education" believes that the award of the Nobel Prize in Economics is often unexpected.

The reason why it is difficult to predict is that the award is not only to scholars who have made breakthrough contributions in a certain field and has been widely recognized, but to a certain extent, the "rain and dew" of each sub-field.

　　The article reviewed the past 20 years and stated that the Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to mechanism design, market search theory, contract theory, auction theory, and behavioral economics theory in the field of micro-theory, and has been awarded to the business cycle in the field of macroeconomics. , Trade and regional research, climate change and technological innovation, in empirical research, awarded market forces and regulatory issues, poverty and welfare issues, in financial and asset research, awarded information asymmetry, time series methods, asset price research, etc. Wait.

It can be seen that the awards cover a wide range of sub-fields, and in recent years have rarely been awarded to scholars in the same sub-field.

　　The respondent believes that although Nobel Prize winners often receive great attention, it is not the most desirable idea to look at the frontiers of economics through the Nobel Prize.

　　The reason is that the Nobel Prize is mainly for the field that has developed rapidly in the past 10-20 years, and is generally awarded when the field is relatively mature.

If you want to track the frontiers of economics, a wiser choice is to focus on the Clark Prize.

　　Text/Reporter Liu Shenliang Part of the content comprehensive Xinhua News Agency

　　Coordinator/Yu Meiying