Inflation is back on the financial markets after a long absence. Inflation data is rising in the United States, the euro zone and Germany. As the European statistical office Eurostat announced last Friday after an initial estimate, the inflation rate in the euro zone was 3.4 percent in September. That is the highest level in 13 years. In August it was 3 percent. Anyone who has been a long-time fan of a gold investment could now see their investment confirmed at first glance - after all, the shiny precious metal is always seen by many fans as a protection against inflation.
Anyone who looks at the development of the gold price in recent times and since the beginning of the year, however, has to admit that gold is currently only able to protect against inflation to a limited extent.
Over the year, the precious metal is about nine percent in the red, in September alone the gold price was 3.5 percent lower than in the previous month.
“The gold price will not trigger any signals for the time being.
The mood among investors is a bit depressed, ”says Martin Siegel, precious metals expert at Stabilitas.
"The sideways movement of the last few months has resulted in investors generally losing interest in this market segment and ignoring gold."
Difficult investment environment
In the meantime, institutional investors are preparing for long-term rising inflation rates in an environment that has changed after Corona. At least that is the result of a current Pureprofile study in which 100 asset managers and professional investors from Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Switzerland were asked about their future prognoses. Almost all (97 percent) see the shift away from globalization to local production and logistics structures, which was already noticeable in the Corona crisis, as a price driver for the next three years.
Raphael Scherer, from philoro Edelmetalle, sees this strengthened in his assessment of future developments.
He also advises private investors to protect themselves accordingly, like institutional investors.
Private investors would be trapped in an “environment that leaves them little scope for action,” warns Scherer.
He refers to the term “safe haven”, which gold has represented for investors, which has been upheld for many decades.
Analysts see bottoming out
But the much-cited safe haven does not seem to be attractive for an investment at the moment. At least in terms of chart technology, it seems. "Gold has tended to decline since August 2020," says Martin Utschneider, Head of Technical Analysis at Bankhaus Donner & Reuschel. "Since the then all-time high of $ 2,075, the gold price has dropped massively." At $ 1,677, however, "a bottom seems to have formed," adds the analyst.
According to Utschneider, the technical market indicators would still indicate a challenging situation in the medium term.
Nevertheless, he is also of the opinion that if the "currently prevailing uncertainties in connection with the corona virus and the associated economic losses as well as the further rising inflation data intensify", this mix could still become a driver for the gold price.
The intrinsic value of gold is undisputed
Helaba also writes in its current gold analysis that “a stormy autumn could give gold the decisive boost”. Martin Utschneider from Donner & Reuschel gives concrete price targets for this: In the short to medium term, the prices could climb to the range of 1852 dollars, in the long term the magical 2000 dollar mark could come into focus again. “In general, the value of gold remains undisputed, according to Utschneider, but the price continues to be quite volatile.
Anyone planning to have gold in their custody account for a longer period of time should have pricked up their ears this week when analysts at the American investment bank Jefferies said.
You see two good long-term hedging options in gold and Bitcoin, as the stagflation scenario continues to increase.
Your long-term forecast for the price of gold is more and not less than $ 5,500 an ounce.
Aside from this price target, investors can be sure of at least one thing with gold: Anyone who has held investment gold (in the form of coins and bars) for a year and then sells it does not have to pay any taxes on the profit - inflation or not.