On Monday, September 27, the Russian currency is strengthening on the Moscow Exchange.

During the trades, the euro fell by almost 0.5% - to 84.82 rubles.

The last time a similar value could be observed was on July 29, 2020.

At the same time, the dollar rate dropped by 0.29% - to 72.51 rubles.

According to experts interviewed by RT, significant support for the national currency was provided by the growth of world oil prices to a three-year maximum.

At trading on Monday, the cost of Brent crude on the ICE exchange in London rose by 1.8% and for the first time since October 2018 reached $ 78.64 per barrel.

Denis Bad'yanov, an analyst at Alfa-Capital, explained that the oil market participants reacted positively to the data on a sharp reduction in US reserves of raw materials.

According to a report from the US Energy Information Administration, over the week the volume of oil reserves in the United States decreased by 3.5 million barrels - to 414 million. The indicator was the lowest in the last three years.

“In the United States, stocks of raw materials continue to decline against the backdrop of Hurricane Ida and the suspension of part of production in the Gulf of Mexico.

At the same time, the demand for raw materials from oil refineries is growing as the cold weather sets in, ”explained Denis Badyanov in a conversation with RT.

Note that as a result of natural disasters, the oil companies of the United States had to stop 16% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and evacuate some of their personnel.

Such data was presented on September 23 by the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control.

“In addition, the global market is now in anticipation of seasonal growth in demand for raw materials in the IV quarter.

This, in particular, is evidenced by the forecasts of OPEC and the International Energy Agency.

The increase in demand should be facilitated by the weakening of quarantine restrictions and increased fuel consumption by aviation companies, ”added Badianov.

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Also, the current tax period plays in favor of strengthening the Russian currency.

The director of the analytical department of the Investment Company "Region" Valery Vaisberg told RT about this.

According to him, at this time, exporting companies traditionally sell foreign currency and buy rubles to pay taxes.

An additional factor of support for the ruble in recent months was the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank.

Such an opinion in an interview with RT was shared by the expert of BCS World of Investments Mikhail Zeltser.

At a meeting on September 10, the Central Bank raised the key rate for the fifth time in a row (to 6.75% per annum) and admitted the likelihood of another increase in the near future.

The regulator's actions are aimed at curbing inflation.

Meanwhile, a high key rate traditionally leads to an increase in investor interest in the federal loan bond (OFZ) market.

Recall that OFZs are debt obligations guaranteed by the Russian government.

Financial market participants buy securities issued by the Ministry of Finance and receive a stable income from them.

In other words, holders of government bonds lend their money to the Russian economy.

The yield on debt securities directly depends on the interest rate set in the country.

Thus, in the event of a further increase in the borrowing rate of the Central Bank, investments in OFZs will become more profitable for investors, which will have a positive effect on the ruble.

“The growth of the Central Bank's rate is a priori positive for the national currency.

If inflation in the next month does not calm down, the Central Bank will again be forced to act, and the ruble will again show stability, "- said Mikhail Zeltser.

According to the expert's forecast, in the near future, the dollar and euro rates may still briefly rise to the levels of 74.5 and 87 rubles, respectively.

Nevertheless, in the medium term, the indicators can drop to the marks of 70 and 82 rubles, the analyst said.

Valery Weisberg adheres to a similar point of view.

“Considering the seasonally strong trade balance of Russia in the IV quarter and still high prices for raw materials, we can expect that the national currency will try to break through the mark of 72 rubles per dollar.

I assume that the range of 72-74 rubles per dollar will remain until the end of the year.

As for the European currency, by the end of the year it can be expected that the euro rate will drop below 83 rubles, ”concluded Weisberg.