China-Singapore Jingwei, September 27th (Fu Jianqing) There are still four trading days left, and the Golden Week of November will arrive.

For investors, it has always been a big problem to choose whether to hold currency or shares at this time.

Historical data reveals post-holiday market

  From the perspective of historical performance, the market mostly showed adjustments before the 11th Golden Week, but mostly rebounded after the holiday.

  China-Singapore Jingwei combed the data of the five trading days before and after the holiday in the past five years, showing that most of the Shanghai Composite Index fell before the Golden Week holiday and rose after the holiday.

Only in 2018, the opposite market appeared, and the rising index plummeted by more than 7% in the five trading days after the holiday.

  In terms of turnover, most of the volume after the holiday also showed high volume, and the volume of transactions before the holiday was relatively indifferent.

  The East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Report believes that the seasonal tightening of funds, absolute beneficiaries' lock-in of income during the year, and pre-holiday risk aversion are the main reasons for the market adjustment before the National Day in the past few years.

The valuation switch market of the consumer industry usually starts around the National Day, and the value of stability and financial allocation tends to gradually appear after the holiday.

  According to the research report of East Asia Qianhai Securities, from the perspective of the average excess return rate of the CITIC Style Index relative to Windtron A in the past 10 years, the consumption index has been relatively good from the 10 trading days before the National Day to the 20 trading days after the National Day. Market performance achieved average excess returns of 0.88% and 0.36%, respectively; while Stability and Finance did not perform well before the National Day, but they achieved average excess returns of 0.55% and 0.63% respectively in the 20 trading days after the National Day.

Cyclical stocks fell, and the market style changed?

  Three trading days after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the market style began to change.

The strong cycle killed off, and the consumer sector rebounded. The market on September 24 has begun to loom the market style around the Golden Week in the past.

  Source of market quotations on September 24th: Wind

  On the disk, the coal, cement, chemicals and other sectors fell sharply; stimulated by the expectation of price increases, the food processing, dairy, and liquor sectors rose one after another, and the food and beverage (Shenwan) index rose by more than 3%.

  Source of food and beverage index market on September 24: Wind

  At the same time, the popular products in the domestic commodity futures market in the early stage have also been adjusted significantly.

  Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that if you are holding cyclical stocks, the risk is already relatively high and you should make a profit in time.

If you are holding consumer stocks, you can hold stocks for the holidays.

At the same time, with the improvement of liquidity, market interest rates still have a downward trend, coupled with the recovery of investor confidence, consumer white horse stocks may usher in an opportunity to resume rising. The end of September is a good opportunity to lay out the market in the fourth quarter.

Overseas risks are concentrated, and analysts’ judgments are basically the same

  During the week, many overseas central banks have new developments.

  On September 23, local time, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey announced a reduction in the policy interest rate from 19% to 18%. The Turkish lira depreciated, and the exchange rate of the lira against the US dollar was once close to the historical low of 8.8 to 1; September 22, local time , The Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Brazil announced that the benchmark interest rate will be raised from 5.25% to 6.25%. This is the fifth time that the Central Bank of Brazil has raised interest rates this year. The current level of interest rates in Brazil has reached the highest point since 2019.

  In addition, the Fed’s attitude has always been the focus of the market, especially the issue of "debt default".

  On September 19, local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that if the U.S. Congress does not quickly raise the federal government’s debt ceiling or suspend its entry into force, the federal government may default on debt in October this year and cause widespread "economic disaster."

  According to a CCTV news client report, Mark Zandi, chief economist of the well-known US bond rating agency Moody's, warned in a latest analysis report that the US debt default will gradually recover its economy from the new crown epidemic. It caused a "catastrophic blow" and triggered an economic recession comparable to the United States during the Great Depression.

  Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the debts of some countries in the overseas market are overwhelming, and the boots have not yet landed.

It is recommended to be defensive, looking for relatively low valuations and high security, such as electricity, insurance, banking and other sectors.

  Mu Yiling, chief analyst of open source securities strategy, said that it is an indisputable fact that global markets are volatile. Investors should pay more attention to whether the current market has "retracement risks" that need to be avoided.

Before the suppression of inflation has become the main policy goal, there is no obvious risk in the market.

  Looking forward to the market in the last quarter of this year, Dr. Yi Bin, chief strategist of East Asia Qianhai Securities, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that from the A-share market, market liquidity expectations in the fourth quarter tend to ease, and the market is expected after the third quarter report. The formation of a new consensus on the medium-term profit trend of the growth sector will also promote the restoration of the growth sector’s earnings expectations, and the market style is also expected to return to the main line at the end of the year.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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