What was already clear also applies on election evening: Only after possibly arduous coalition negotiations will it be clear who will rule Germany for the next four years. If Olaf Scholz should be denied the Federal Chancellery despite a result that is more than respectable for his party and despite his sympathy and competence values compared to other top candidates, he can identify those responsible among the left in his party. The fact that the SPD did not categorically rule out a coalition with the Greens and the Left Party before the election is likely to have persuaded not a few voters in the last few days before the polls to still give the Union theirs despite an unconvincing candidate for Chancellor and a weak election campaign Vote.
Any new government will have to deal with the contradiction between an urgent need for reform and the resistance of many people to change in their lives. In the past, not least because of the opinion of the opinion polls, politics was guided by the principle of keeping the public from hiding truths that appear unpleasant to the population and of foregoing a policy of market-economy reform.
In view of the demographic development, the global economic challenges and the financial requirements of climate policy, a new government must act more energetically and more decisively than the previous grand coalition. As the election campaign has shown, neither the Union nor the SPD are mentally prepared for this. Economic policy competence has not enjoyed a high level of appreciation here or there in recent years; the grand coalition was more concerned with administering the country than bravely moving it forward.
There is a time for everything: a cautious policy approach may be justified in a world where a crisis ensued every few years.
If Germany does not want to jeopardize its economic performance, a policy of reform is inevitable.
The future Federal Chancellor faces major challenges.