Will the downturn of the property market affect the economy if the scenery is no longer
Statistics show that during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the property market in most cities across the country was "cooling down".
Take Beijing as an example. Whether it is new commercial housing online signing or second-hand housing transactions, compared with the Dragon Boat Festival in the first half of this year, there has been a significant decline.
Industry insiders estimate that during the National Day "Golden Week" period, it is difficult for the property market transactions in most cities in my country to see rising prices. On the whole, the real estate market has entered a downward channel.
If you have been paying attention to the market, such results are not unexpected.
The escalating real estate control policies in recent years have created a high-pressure situation on the real estate market.
In the first few months of this year, according to market changes, some cities have tightened their control again, which directly contributed to the increase in new and second-hand houses since August. The number of cities has decreased to the lowest level during the year. Housing prices in more and more cities, especially second-hand housing prices, have begun to decline. .
If you look at the market a bit longer, you can also find that in recent months, some places have seen landless auctions from time to time.
Increasing the supply of residential land is an important weight in the regulation of the real estate market.
The unsold land auction means that real estate developers are bearish on the real estate market outlook, which also sends a strong signal to the market. The annual "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" in the past is destined to be difficult to return to the past.
Real estate used to be one of the engines of China's economic development. Many places have benefited from the rapid advancement of real estate, but it has also brought many problems.
In recent years, through regulation and reforms, the real estate market has ceased to be a "money cow" for local government finances. Under the principle of "housing to live without speculation", governments at all levels have imposed various measures to make the real estate market gradually return to rationality and stability. The track of development.
However, due to the inertia of thinking and the "path dependence" of economic development, the recent weakness of the property market will inevitably cause some uneasiness in the economic field.
Internationally, there have been precedents of economic recession caused by falling housing prices. Will this happen in China?
Analyzing the composition of my country's current real estate market, it is not difficult to see that it is difficult for the economy to stagnate due to a sharp drop in housing prices.
In other countries, falling housing prices have dragged down the economy. The most important reason is that real estate developers borrow heavily from banks, and speculative purchasing power for real estate investment also borrows heavily from banks. Banks use this kind of borrowing as their source of high profits. Tie yourself tightly to the real estate market.
This kind of interlocking capital structure, once encountered a "black swan" event, will cause a "domino"-like effect and bring a crisis to the economic operation of the entire country.
For this kind of phenomenon, my country has been on high alert in the real estate regulation and control over the past 10 years.
On the one hand, the relevant departments have set strict policy restrictions on banks' lending to developers; on the other hand, the scale of personal mortgages has always been within a controllable range, and there is not much room for speculation.
These two measures have built a "firewall" between the real estate market and the economic fundamentals. Even if a "black swan" appears in the real estate market, it will not endanger the banking system and spread into a global event.
On the other hand, as long as there are no major problems in the operation of the economy, there will be no major problems in the operation of the real estate market. The current decline in housing prices is a normal price fluctuation within a controllable range.
In the past, real estate developers and investors had expectations for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten", which was related to cyclical market speculation.
Nowadays, "housing, living and not speculating" has become the main tone of the market. Real estate companies should also adjust their thinking, formulate new business strategies for the new market structure, and look for new profit growth points in the "home ownership" business.
Zhou Junsheng Source: China Youth Daily