Sino-Singapore Jingwei, September 22 (Fu Jianqing) On the 22nd, the turnover of A-shares in the two markets exceeded one trillion yuan for 44 consecutive trading days, breaking the record of 43 consecutive trading days set in the 2015 bull market.

As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% to 3,628.49 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.57% to 14277.08 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.91% to 3,164.33 points.

The total turnover of the two cities is 1152.7 billion, exceeding 80 million transactions per second.

  It is worth mentioning that, unlike the Mid-Autumn Festival catastrophe in other markets around the world, the three major indexes opened low and moved high, the power sector set off a wave of daily limit, and the military, coal, real estate, semiconductor and other sectors performed strongly.

Wind screenshot

The same plot, different trends

  Looking back at the 43 consecutive trading days in 2015, the turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion, starting on May 8th of that year and ending on July 8th.

In these two months, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a bull market high, which is remembered as "5178".

However, the market in the past two months was thrilling.

   Source of market trends in 2015: Wind

  On May 8, 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index entered a short-term adjustment, and then reached 5178.19 points in 25 trading days, an increase of over 25%.

The low point of this round of the market was 1974.38 on March 12, 2014. Counting from this day, the overall increase has exceeded 150%.

  After reaching the high point, the market took a sharp turn, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell back to around 3,500 points in just 17 trading days.

In the entire 43 trading days with a turnover of more than one trillion yuan, the range was -14.71%, and the amplitude was 42.72%.

In addition, it is worth noting that there are five days of turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan.

  Compared with 2015, this year's record-breaking market trend is much more stable.

  This time the record interval is from July 21 to September 22 this year.

According to Wind data, as of the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.18% in the range, and the amplitude was 11.62%.

The highest turnover was 1,710.743 billion yuan, and there was no turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan.

  Dr. Dong Zhongyun, chief economist of AVIC Securities, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that if the central bank’s policy is looser than expected, a two trillion transaction volume may appear.

From the perspective of healthy development, the normalized transaction volume of two trillions needs to match a larger total market value, and it may take some time.

What are the driving factors?

  In the context of "housing and living without speculation", a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market from the property market to bring incremental funds.

  Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said that the "Golden Decade" of real estate is coming to an end, and the A-share market will usher in the opportunity of "Golden Decade". There are only a lot more opportunities in the capital market."

  In addition, quantitative trading has also become the focus of recent market attention.

  According to a CCTV financial report, many investors believe that the continuous trading volume exceeding one trillion is closely related to “quantitative trading”.

Quantitative trading refers to the use of mathematical models to explore the law of stock price rises and falls, with trend investment as the mainstay, supplemented by fundamental analysis.

Statistics show that 59.38% of products are profitable from public offerings this year; 83.78% of products are profitable from quantitative private offerings, and the rate of return is generally distributed in the range of 10-20% and 20-30%.

  According to CCTV financial data, my country's quantitative investment has grown rapidly, and the total scale of quantitative private equity has passed the 1 trillion mark.

There are about 20 tens of billions of quantitative private placements, and some of the quantitative private placements exceed 50 billion.

  The Securities Regulatory Commission has also noticed the problems that may arise.

The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Yi Huiman, recently attended the 60th World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) membership meeting and annual meeting in 2021, said that quantitative trading and high-frequency trading can enhance market liquidity and improve pricing efficiency at the same time. It leads to the convergence of transactions and increased volatility, which violates market fairness.

Analysts pay attention to this indicator

  Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities and director of the research institute, said in an interview with Sino-Singapore Jingwei that a very important driving force behind the 2015 bull market was the entry of highly leveraged funds, which made the entire market hot at the same time. , Contains a lot of risks.

And this round of turnover breaking through one trillion yuan will gradually become a norm. In recent years, the explosion of new funds and the rise of quantitative intelligent investment are all boosting factors.

  Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda Securities, put forward a different view, “Let’s not think that the status quo is normal and reasonable. Hong Kong stocks are only more than 100 billion Hong Kong dollars. Why is A-shares trillion yuan normal? In fact, they are all overheated. It is normal before July 21 (the starting date of this round of records)."

  At the same time, industry analysts also mentioned the issue of concern about turnover rate.

  Li Daxiao said that from 30 years of data, the turnover rate of A shares has a gradual downward trend. As the market scale gradually expands, the calculation method of using a constant turnover rate to reverse the reasonable trading volume may not be correct.

We have to adapt to market changes under the downward trend of turnover rate.

When there is an excessively high turnover rate, it is more cautious.

  Dong Zhongyun also believes that due to the increase in the overall market value of A-shares, relatively speaking, trillions of transactions do not represent extreme trading enthusiasm, and it is more reasonable to use turnover rate instead of turnover to represent trading enthusiasm.

The current market’s trading enthusiasm matches the index’s rise, and the points have fully reflected the increase in trading enthusiasm.

From this perspective, if the Shanghai Composite Index wants to continue to break through, it may require a higher turnover rate to support it.

(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in the article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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