In view of the demographic development, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy predicts excessively high wage increases for employees in Germany for the foreseeable future.

"On average, wage increases of five percent per year are realistic," said IfW boss Gabriel Felbermayr of "Bild".

The plus in industries in which skilled workers are urgently needed could be even higher.

The situation for employees is better than it has been in 30 years.

The reason for the strong wage increase in the next few years is that the number of available workers will gradually decrease from 2023 at the latest due to demographic change, according to Felbermayr.

“The companies will therefore vie for employees more than they have been for decades.” A rise in the minimum wage and higher inflation would also contribute to wages rising significantly more than before.

Higher inflation expected

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos sees the peak of the inflationary surge in the euro zone in autumn. Around November, the rate of inflation is likely to be the highest with values ​​of 3.4 to 3.5 percent, said the Spaniard on Tuesday at an online event. The inflation rate in the euro area had soared to 3.0 percent in August, the highest level in around ten years. De Guindos also emphasized that the European Central Bank (ECB) had to be "very vigilant" regarding surprises with a view to possible upward outliers in inflation.

So far, the high inflation has hardly had any impact on the wage rounds. But the ECB deputy warned against linking salary increases to the inflation rate, which has risen significantly this year in the wake of the pandemic. He pointed out that some countries in Europe had corresponding regulations for pensions and wages in the public sector. In his opinion, however, these should not take effect in 2021 so that the temporary rise in inflation does not perpetuate. "This is something we should avoid," he added.

The deputy of ECB boss Christine Lagarde had warned on an earlier occasion that inflation could turn out to be even higher than currently forecast. This applies in the event that material bottlenecks caused by supply chain problems persist, for example in the case of microchips and semiconductors. The ECB economists are predicting an inflation rate of 2.2 percent for the current year. For 2022 they expect a value of 1.7 percent and for 2023 1.5 percent. This would mean that the inflation rate would again be below the target value of 2.0 percent that the ECB is aiming for.