Experts believe that carbon peaking means that the total amount of carbon emissions tends to stabilize in stages, and local annual carbon emissions indicators should be given a certain degree of flexibility.

  How local governments can achieve carbon control through energy control and how to ensure economic growth in carbon emission reduction has become the focus of social attention.

  Yesterday, at the International Forum on Carbon Neutrality and Green Economic Development organized by China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, Fan Gang, Vice President of China Economic System Reform Research Society and Dean of China (Shenzhen) Comprehensive Development Research Institute, delivered a keynote speech Shi said that in order for local governments to achieve low-carbon development, they must promote the transformation of economic structure and energy structure, control carbon but not energy, and provide more development space for new energy and renewable energy.

  Regarding carbon control, Fan Gang said that the top priority is to implement a “quota system” for carbon emissions across the country.

"From the perspective of carbon emissions trading, there is no quota and no trading. In the past, the total amount and role of carbon trading was limited. One of the key points was that there was no mandatory and verifiable quota."

  Regarding energy control, Fan Gang believes that at this stage, the "dual control of energy consumption" (ie, controlling the intensity and total amount of energy consumption) system should be further improved to promote the real realization of the "dual carbon" goal.

"After energy control, there may be two hidden dangers: First, the rate of reduction of carbon emissions will be slow; second, there is no room for new energy, and the development of new energy and renewable clean energy may be hindered. "

  The "Plan for Improving the Dual Control System of Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume" recently issued by the National Development and Reform Commission puts forward that "encouraging local governments to increase renewable energy consumption" has become an important direction for improving "dual control of energy consumption."

The plan clarifies that the amount of consumption exceeding the weight of the minimum renewable energy power consumption responsibility is not included in the assessment of the current total energy consumption of the region's annual and five-year plans.

  But the role of renewable energy in achieving carbon neutrality should not be overestimated.

  Yang Lei, deputy dean of the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, said at the above forum that the energy transition with the goal of carbon neutrality is both technically and economically feasible, but achieving carbon neutrality and energy transition are the same. This system engineering requires multiple measures.

"Improving energy efficiency is the biggest contributor to reducing emissions. Both the Renewable Energy Agency and the International Energy Agency hold the same view. If the contribution rate is divided into three equal parts, energy efficiency will account for at least one-third."

  Professor Tang Jie of Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen) School of Economics and Management and former deputy mayor of Shenzhen also believes that energy efficiency improvement and energy structure adjustment are the keys to achieving the "dual carbon" goal.

  For example, in the past ten years, Shenzhen has generally reached a plateau of carbon peaks. Especially from 2016 to 2020, carbon emissions have dropped by 1.16 million tons, entering a relatively stable stage.

Among them, Shenzhen’s economy grew by 1.34 times from 2010 to 2020 (an average of 8.9% per year), and its population grew by 69%, driving carbon emissions by 3.25 times and 3.43 times, respectively.

At the same time, the improvement of energy efficiency in Shenzhen from 2010 to 2020 caused a 4.5-fold reduction in carbon emissions, and the adoption of clean energy and renewable energy with lower carbon content caused a 1.2-fold reduction in carbon emissions, which together roughly offset economic growth and population growth. The resulting increase in carbon emissions.

  During this period, although the proportion of Shenzhen's manufacturing industry declined, the production level of the manufacturing industry was increasing.

Among them, the leading industries such as communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing continue to rise to 68.9%, and the proportion of economic added value and energy consumption has always been more than 2.2 times.

  "These data reflect that the view that'carbon reduction will curb economic growth' is untenable." Tang Jie said that in regional development, adjusting the industrial structure and developing high-end manufacturing will also help reduce regional energy consumption.

  Due to differences in regional development, Shenzhen’s experience cannot be fully replicated.

Liu Qiang, project director of the China Office of the British Children’s Investment Fund, said at the meeting that in China, resource-dependent and economically developed provinces have different energy consumption requirements. The starting point and direction of the energy transition plan are different, and the treatment of existing and new capacity is different. There are also differences in methods. Therefore, the realization of "dual carbon" requires the development of differentiated solutions in various regions, which cannot be a one-size-fits-all approach. At the same time, a regionally integrated carbon emission reduction path should be sought.

  Many experts at the meeting agreed that from a national perspective, the provinces of energy production and energy consumption have different carbon emission accounting and emission reduction responsibilities.

  Regarding the province of energy production, Li Junfeng, director of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Energy Research Society, told China Business News that to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, it is also necessary to improve its technical level and quality standards in the energy transition.

Regarding energy-consuming regions, Tang Jie said that “whipping fast cattle” and campaign-style emission reductions should be prevented.

  "The peak of carbon emissions is not the value of carbon emissions at a certain point in time, but the total amount of carbon emissions at a certain point in time. Emissions reduction does not mean that electricity will be cut off, and it will take a long time to work. Even if it enters the peak of carbon During the plateau period, due to the economic downturn that year, there may also be an increase in regional unit power consumption. Therefore, local annual carbon emission indicators should be given a certain degree of flexibility." Tang Jie said.

  Author: Wu Simin

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