China News Service, Beijing, September 15 (Reporter Liu Liang) In response to the media's question about the mismatch between the new export order index and the total export data, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics of China, attended the State Council Information Office on the 15th. At the press conference, it was stated that it is normal for the expected indicators to have a contrast with the actual situation, and the changes between the indicators should be viewed in a comprehensive manner and objectively analyzed.
At the press conference that day, foreign media reporters asked questions. Recently, China's new export order index is below 50%, but at the same time, exports are rising. How to explain the difference between the two?
Fu Linghui explained that the new export order index in the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) mainly reflects the expectations of companies on overseas demand and is an indicator that reflects expectations.
At the same time, the total export value of goods reflects the total value of the company's exports abroad.
The former is the expected indicator, and the latter is the actual export situation.
"Because enterprises have a process from receiving export orders to organizing production, to the transportation and customs declaration of exported goods, and then to completing exports. From historical experience, PMI's new export order index has a certain degree of advancement for exports. However, we must also be aware that there are many expected factors that affect the export of enterprises. The relationship between the new export order index of the manufacturing industry and the actual export is not stable, and sometimes there will be a certain contrast. This is normal." Fu Linghui said.
For example, he said that since the beginning of this year, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, overseas production and supply have gradually increased.
Some companies will have expectations. Since a lot of domestic exports last year were export substitutes, it is expected that the substitution effect of domestic production will weaken this year.
However, from the actual situation, due to the spread of some mutant viruses that have exceeded expectations this year, the production of overseas economies has been greatly restricted, and the market demand still exists, which has stimulated the growth of domestic exports.
This will create a contrast between the company's expectations and actual exports.
He also pointed out that from an international perspective, the global manufacturing PMI new export order index in August was 51%, a decline for three consecutive months. However, in August, the World Trade Organization announced that the latest trade in goods barometer index was 110.4. The highest level since the indicator was announced, the two indicators actually have a certain contrast.
Therefore, to analyze and judge the export situation, it is necessary to adopt a comprehensive analysis of multiple indicators. Due to the complicated economic and social phenomena, the changes between various indicators are not completely one-to-one. This requires a comprehensive view and objective analysis.