The winemakers in Germany will bring around 900,000,000 liters of must into the cellar this year.

At least that's what their umbrella organization, the German Wine Institute, published in an initial estimate for this year's harvest - and it would be good news.

9 million hectoliters, this amount is slightly below the ten-year average.

So there are no significant deviations upwards or downwards.

Because large fluctuations in quantities only cause additional problems for the wine industry.

2017, for example, when a surprisingly low harvest ensured that importers took over coveted shelf spaces in the trade.

Or a year later, when clearly above-average harvests drove the price down.

Bernd Freytag

Business correspondent Rhein-Neckar-Saar based in Mainz.

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On Tuesday, the wine institute made a diplomatic statement on the quality of the new vintage. If the weather remains as dry as possible and "ideally turns into a golden October", nothing stands in the way of a great vintage with fresh, fruity wines. Dry weather is particularly important for late-ripening varieties such as Riesling, which only reaches maturity at the end of September. In fact, the weather this year has been challenging so far: The sometimes heavy frost in spring and the warm, humid weather of the past few weeks, ideal for pests and fungal diseases, are causing problems for winemakers. It is said that the sunny September was extremely good for the maturity. The must weights, i.e. the sugar content, had increased significantly in the past few weeks.In official ripening measurements, almost all varieties were already at the level prescribed for quality wines.

However, according to the report, the state of health of the vines in the individual wine-growing regions is very different. In fact, the dreaded cherry vinegar fly had benefited from the permanent moisture. If it lays its eggs in healthy berries, preferably those that ripen early, it can cause significant damage. In addition, the warm and humid weather in some locations has led to the spread of downy mildew, which is no less dreaded. The fungus attacks the leaves of the vine and causes berries to wither and can also cause considerable damage. In many cases, according to the wine institute, a "selective harvest" will be necessary, which means that damaged grapes must be sorted out during the harvest. 

In parts of Baden and Württemberg, late frosts also reduced yields, and in the Saale-Unstrut growing area, severe winter frosts in February damaged a considerable part of the vines. The small growing area on the Ahr, where ten percent of the vineyards fell victim to the floods, was particularly hard hit. "The spared vineyards are in good shape thanks to the collegial help from other growing areas." The solidarity among the winegrowers has obviously not suffered after the alarming export figures and the bitter dispute in the industry over the new wine law. Different views on how to counteract the weak exports and further improve the image of German wine had led in the summer to the fact that the cooperative association,whose members represent a third of German viticulture, has resigned from the German Viticulture Association.