China-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 15 (Dong Wenbo) Pork prices have continued to fall this year. Official monitoring data show that the national average wholesale pork price has fallen by more than 50%.
As the "Double Festival" approaches, the peak consumption season is coming.
Regarding the price trend of live pigs, the agency believes that the current Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are approaching and the epidemic in my country has been effectively controlled, and the price of pigs is likely to be slightly boosted.
However, after the holiday effect, the price of live pigs will likely continue to fall.
Wholesale pork prices fell 56% during the year
According to the wholesale price data of agricultural products disclosed by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average pork wholesale price fell month by month during the year, from 46.71 yuan/kg in January to 20.54 yuan/kg in September, a cumulative decrease of 56%.
Trends in the national average wholesale price of pork since the beginning of this year Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
According to the latest monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on September 14, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.03 yuan/kg, and this value was 20.75 yuan/kg on September 1.
The monthly production and sales reports disclosed by the breeding companies also confirmed the trend of pork prices.
Recently, five A-share "big pig farmers" Muyuan, Wen's, New Hope, Zhengbang Technology, and Tianbang shares announced August production and sales data, showing that the average sales price of commodity pigs fell in the same month as the previous month.
Among them, "Pigmao" Muyuan shares sold 2.573 million pigs in August, with sales revenue of 4.234 billion yuan.
Live pig sales in the month increased by 57.47% year-on-year, but sales revenue fell nearly 30% year-on-year. The main reason was that the price of live pigs fell from 34.47 yuan/kg in August last year to 13.92 yuan/kg in August this year, a drop of 60%.
The previous GEM market value, Wen's shares, also had a bleak performance. The sales of live pigs increased by more than 80% year-on-year, and sales revenue decreased by 33.27%. The average sales price of commercial pigs fell by 61.52% year-on-year to RMB 14.24/kg. The increase in sales was completely affected by the price. The decline was offset.
Muyuan shares in the announcement reminded that the risk of price changes in the live pig market is a systematic risk of the entire live pig production industry, which is an objective and uncontrollable external risk for any live pig producer.
Kaiyuan Securities released a research report analysis and pointed out that since August, due to the increase in the number of slaughter pigs, the elimination of inefficient sows, and the low price of frozen meat, the supply of pork in the market has increased. However, due to the low-end consumption, the price of pigs has been Turned down in August.
In the short term, affected by the sluggish market, the sentiment of big pigs in the market is suppressed, forming a certain backlog; the high inventory of frozen meat and the widening of the price gap with fresh meat will also inhibit the slaughter of fresh meat to a certain extent.
On the whole, the short-term pig price rebound is under greater pressure.
CICC said that although the holiday season is approaching and the superposition of policy purchases and storage will provide certain support to the pig price in the fourth quarter, this does not mean the end of the current cycle. The seasonal rebound in consumer demand cannot offset the continued release of pressure on the supply side.
Looking ahead, after the holiday effect, the price of live pigs will likely continue to fall, and it may reach the bottom around March next year.
Guangzhou Futures believes that in view of the new round of purchasing and storage, short-term pig prices may be adjusted.
However, the situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The increase in consumption cannot fully cover the quantity of pork supply. Even if the price of pigs rebounds, it will be difficult to continue. It is expected that the price of pigs will maintain a downward logic in the medium and long term, and the disk shock will be weak.
Stable pig production and market supply
According to Ma Youxiang, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at a press conference held recently, domestic pig production capacity has been fully restored. At the end of July, the national reproductive sow and pig stocks will be restored to 101.6% and 100.2% at the end of 2017, half a year ahead of schedule. Recovery goal.
Ma Youxiang said that with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approaching, the consumption of agricultural products will usher in the traditional peak season.
The prices of agricultural and sideline products will generally rise during the holiday season, especially when the production capacity of live pigs is fully restored.
Therefore, the market supply of agricultural products in my country is guaranteed during the holiday season, especially pork.
"Recently (pork prices) have fallen very fast, and I hope everyone will take this opportunity to eat more pork and buy more pork."
New Jingwei photo by Wang Yongle in the data map
On September 14, the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced its response to the recommendation No. 6776 of the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress, which emphasized that the production and market supply of live pigs will be stabilized.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the implementation of monitoring and early warning is an important basic task for guiding the production of live pigs and regulating market supply.
In August 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the Pig Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"), clearly proposing the establishment of a counter-cyclical control mechanism for pig production, and improving the comprehensive emergency system for stable production and supply of pigs.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that in the next step, it will work with relevant departments to guide all localities to implement the relevant requirements of the "Opinions" and promptly formulate a work plan for stabilizing the production capacity of pigs. A long-term mechanism for stable production and supply of live pigs will be formed to prevent large fluctuations in live pig production capacity and promote the stable and healthy development of the live pig industry. We will continue to increase support for large-scale pig breeding.
However, in this reply, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs believes that “it is not appropriate to implement it at this stage” in response to the proposal made by the representative on the purchase of live pigs at a protective price.
The explanation given by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is that at this stage, the scope of government pricing is mainly limited to important public utilities, public welfare services, and network-based natural monopoly links. Others that can form prices from the market are given to the market to give full play to the market’s role in resource allocation. The decisive role.
At present, the prices of most agricultural and sideline products in my country have been fully liberalized. Market liberalization has played a fundamental role in promoting the development of the pig industry. The government should no longer intervene to protect prices.
At the same time, the production costs of live pigs vary greatly from place to place, it is difficult to unify the quality standards, and it is difficult to grasp the purchase price and subsidy standards.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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