Hurricane growth: the price of Brent oil for the first time in a month and a half exceeded $ 74 per barrel

On Tuesday, September 14, world oil prices reached their highest level in the last month and a half.

During the trades, quotations of raw materials of the benchmark Brent and the American grade WTI grew by almost 1% - to $ 74.22 and $ 71.14 per barrel, respectively.

The achieved values ​​were the highest since the beginning of August.

The main reason for the rise in oil prices was alarming weather forecasts in the United States.

Igor Galaktionov, an expert on the stock market "BCS World of Investments", spoke about this in an interview with RT.

“As a result of Hurricane Ida on Monday, a significant part of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico was suspended.

At the same time, there are already reports of tropical storm "Nicholas", which may pass along the coast of Texas and Louisiana.

This creates the risks of a more protracted period of production disruptions in the region, ”explained Galaktionov.

Note that as a result of natural disasters, the oil companies of the United States had to stop almost 44% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and evacuate some of their personnel.

Such data was presented yesterday by the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Control.

In addition, the updated OPEC forecast had a positive impact on oil prices, Igor Galaktionov said.

According to the organization's report published on September 13, in 2021 the global demand for energy raw materials will grow by 6 million barrels per day.

At the same time, in 2022, global oil consumption may increase by 4.2 million barrels per day, and not by 3.3 million, as previously expected.

“Market participants feared that due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 delta strain in Asia, forecasts for fuel demand would worsen.

However, OPEC as a whole maintains an optimistic outlook on the market, which supports the quotes, ”explained Galaktionov.

Against the backdrop of a steady increase in oil demand, the global hydrocarbon market will remain in short supply in the near future.

As a result, the cost of oil will continue to remain at a relatively high level in the foreseeable future, says Vladimir Bragin, director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics of Alfa Capital Management Company.

“The global economy is gradually recovering from the shocks of the coronavirus, which increases the need for energy resources.

Therefore, despite the increase in oil production by the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement, there is still a shortage of raw materials on the market, which has a positive effect on prices, "Bragin explained.

Recall that the OPEC + agreement includes 23 oil-producing countries, including Russia.

As part of the deal, the states jointly control the production of raw materials to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market.

Such a policy should keep oil prices from sharp fluctuations.

If the current conditions are maintained until the end of 2021, the price of Brent oil will continue to fluctuate in the range of $ 70-75 per barrel, said Vladimir Bragin.

At the same time, as the expert emphasized, the current price level remains comfortable for Russia.

The oil price hike observed in recent days had a positive effect on the dynamics of the Russian currency. So, since the beginning of the week, the dollar rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange has dropped by 0.8% and reached 72.59 rubles at the auction on Tuesday. At the same time, the euro rate also fell by 0.8% and on September 14 approached the level of 85.78 rubles. The value was the lowest since mid-June.

“For the ruble, in addition to oil prices, the level of the Central Bank's key rate, the policy of world central banks, general investor sentiment and the level of demand for risky assets are important. Commodity prices will keep the ruble exchange rate stable, but not determine it. If there are no negative changes in the global economy and the policy of regulators, by the end of the year the dollar and euro rates will remain close to the current values ​​- 72-74 and 86-87 rubles, ”said Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, in a conversation with RT.

In addition, macroeconomic factors provide significant support to the Russian currency, says Georgy Vaschenko, head of the department for trading operations on the Russian stock market at Freedom Finance Investment Company.

So, for example, according to the latest data from the Central Bank, in July 2021, the surplus of Russia's trade balance reached its maximum level for the entire period of observations and exceeded $ 23 billion.

“Based on this, we expect that in September the dollar rate will fluctuate in the range of 72.5-74.5 rubles.

A breakdown of this corridor downwards can provoke a speculative play to bear, and in this case the rate will drop to 71 rubles for a while, "Vaschenko concluded in a conversation with RT.