Delivery bottlenecks, material shortages and production problems have been weighing on the German economy for many months.
Hardly anyone speaks of a phenomenon that only occurs for a short time.
On the contrary, there are increasing voices that the economy is losing more and more momentum this year than expected after the corona lockdowns were lifted.
Niklas Záboji
Editor in business.
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As the economists at the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle (IWH) calculated on Tuesday, the German economy should only grow by 2.2 percent this year - and thus significantly more slowly than expected in early summer. At that time, the IWH had assumed 3.9 percent. The growth forecast was almost halved. Most of the other economic researchers were also expecting growth rates of 3 to 4 percent in the end.
The current summer quarter will not be as strong as expected in early summer, says IWH economic director Oliver Holtemöller in an interview with the FAZ. This is mainly due to the supply bottlenecks in the industry.
But private consumption also did not develop as strongly as expected in early summer and is still “well below the pre-crisis level”.
At the same time, the uncertainty about corona infections and any restrictions in autumn and winter are inhibiting economic development, says Holtemöller.
This was also shown by the latest sentiment polls.
Normal occupancy at the end of 2022
According to IWH, there is currently no end in sight to the delivery and production disruptions.
That weighs on German industry.
Nevertheless, the economists do not want to be understood as pessimists: For the year 2022, the chances are good that the economy will resume its way back to normal - "also because the situation on the labor markets is steadily improving," said Holtemöller.
Capacities should be fully utilized again by the end of 2022.
According to IWH, the German economy will grow by 3.6 percent in the coming year.
The state's funding deficit will, however, remain negative: after minus 4.3 percent last year and minus 4.5 percent this year, the institute expects a minus of 1.3 percent in 2022, measured against economic output.
On Tuesday, the economists of the union-related Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) also predicted a slowdown in the German economy - albeit without giving concrete figures for economic output. The IMK indicator, which works according to the traffic light system, switched from "green" to "yellow-green". He is thus forecasting average growth for the period from September to the end of November, measured against the long-term average, instead of above-average growth. The main reasons for the forecast damper are the delivery bottlenecks, especially for semiconductors, as well as the increased prices for raw materials and intermediate consumption.