Has the stock market overheated for 39 consecutive trading days?
Yesterday's closing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange index has 6 consecutive positives, and the A-share market has a turnover of more than one trillion for 39 consecutive trading days.
In an extremely differentiated market, there will always be people who are happy and others who are worried. Last month, new energy was still laughing at "drinking and taking medicine". This month, it is the turn of traditional energy to joke about new energy.
Fengshui takes turns, keep a low profile if you make money, don't be depressed if you don't make money.
As the index steadily rises, there are more and more news: new investors are running into the market, funds are running into the market, and the net inflow of A-share funds is close to the whole year of last year. The current situation is similar to 2014...
Friends who have experienced the abnormal volatility of the stock market in 2015 are always very sensitive to this information, worrying that every emotional ignition point is approaching a high point.
Are A shares overheating right now?
How to treat such a continuous trillion market?
In fact, there is an important indicator to measure market enthusiasm-turnover rate.
In recent years, the total market value of the stock market itself has increased. With the expansion of the number and equity of listed companies driven by IPOs and refinancing, the current free market value of A-shares (the sum of the market value of all freely tradable stocks in the market) has also increased year by year. It broke through 40 trillion yuan.
It is obviously inappropriate to measure the current market based on the original turnover.
Therefore, it is a good choice to measure the current market according to the turnover rate.
According to CICC's research report, historically, the free float market value of A shares corresponds to an average turnover rate of about 2.57%.
If calculated according to this average value, it means that the trillions of transactions in the market are a normal phenomenon for A shares.
Of course, there are ordinary and special. A turnover rate of more than 5% in a single day is a dangerous signal.
Judging from historical data, a turnover rate of more than 5% in a single day reflects overheated sentiment and risk of correction.
If calculated according to this data, the current turnover of A-shares that needs to be vigilant is over 2 trillion yuan in a single day or consistently higher than 1.8 trillion yuan.
In addition, from historical data, 3% is the limit for the high turnover rate of A shares.
The continuous high turnover rate corresponds to the rapid rise and fall during the bull market or short-term periods.
With 3% as the boundary, there are 7 historically comparable and sustained high turnover rates. Among them, in the three rounds of the index bull market in 2007, 2009 and 2014-2015, the high turnover rate lasted for a relatively long time. .
In addition, the 4 high turnover rate ranges correspond to the short-term market surge, accompanied by overheated market sentiment and rapid rise in turnover rate.
By analogy, in this round of A-share market, the turnover rate has increased relatively moderately, the market has not been overheated, and the concentration of transaction volume has declined. In the absence of exogenous shocks, investors have concentrated on realizing their gains. The probability of causing the market to fall sharply is low.
Going back to yesterday’s A-shares, the subject of price increases is still dominating the list. Even PetroChina has seen a rare rise, closing up nearly 6%, and its stock price hit a new high during the year.
The cycle is rotating, and the related asset varieties are rising like a rainbow, but don't forget the fact that "buy at the apex of the cycle and wait until the next cycle to solve the set".
In addition to the subject of price increases, technology subjects led by chips yesterday became the main decliners, and photovoltaic, military, and liquor stocks were in a downturn.
The sector rotates too fast, and investors need to be patient.
The more this kind of moment is, the more it will test everyone's forward-looking logic and research ability. Choosing the right track has a better effect than frequent disturbances.
(Zhang Daoda)