Why does the price "scissors gap" expand
Our reporter Xiong Li
The National Bureau of Statistics recently released August National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Producers' Ex-factory Price Index (PPI) data show that in August, the CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month.
PPI rose 9.5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month.
As the year-on-year increase of PPI expanded and the year-on-year increase of CPI narrowed, the "scissors gap" between the two expanded to 8.7 percentage points, a new high.
Affected by the rising prices of coal, chemicals, steel and other products, the price of industrial products in August increased both year-on-year and month-on-month.
From a year-on-year perspective, the price of means of production rose by 12.7%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points; the price of means of subsistence rose by 0.3%, the same as in July.
Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that among the main industries, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining and dressing, oil and natural gas mining, petroleum and coal and other fuel processing industries, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries , Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, chemical fiber manufacturing prices rose between 21.8% and 57.1%, which together affected the PPI increase by about 7.9%, more than 80% of the total increase.
Among them, the price increase of coal mining and washing industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 11.4, 2.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively, which was the main reason for the increase in the same period.
According to estimates, of the 9.5% year-on-year increase in August, the carry-over impact of last year's price changes was about 1.8 percentage points, down 0.3 percentage points from July; the impact of the new price increase was about 7.7 percentage points, an increase of 0.8 percentage points.
"The contribution of the new price increase factors is increasing, and the upstream price increase still needs attention." said Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank.
From a month-on-month perspective, PPI rose by 0.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over July.
Guo Liyan, director of the Comprehensive Situation Office of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said that due to the impact of energy and electricity restrictions in some places and the decline in crude steel production, coal mining and washing, petroleum and coal and other fuel processing industries, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, The price increase of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry ranged from 1% to 6.5% month-on-month, which together contributed 85% of the month-on-month increase in PPI.
At the same time, the prices of manufacturing products such as metal products, electrical machinery and equipment, general equipment, computer communications and other electronic equipment have also risen slightly due to the impact of the transmission of upstream raw material prices and the tight supply of chips.
"The scissors gap between PPI and CPI reached 8.7 percentage points in August, which is a new high since the data. However, it can be found from the structural analysis that the poor transmission of PPI to CPI is mainly caused by the fall in food prices represented by pork prices, not Food prices have risen moderately." Wen Bin said.
Wen Bin believes that, on the whole, the rising trend of bulk commodity prices has slowed down or has fallen, and the contradiction between supply and demand of individual commodities has led to price increases in August.
As the contradiction between supply and demand gradually eases, PPI is expected to peak and fall in the future.
As the downward trend in food prices is not easy to reverse in the short term, the CPI will remain low and fluctuate, and the overall impact on monetary policy will be limited.
Guo Liyan believes that PPI is still likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. In the future, as the effects of policy measures such as increasing coal production and supply, placing bulk commodity reserves, and correcting "movement-style" carbon reductions, etc., the effects of the upstream industry supply constraints will gradually ease, PPI is expected to trend Yu fell back.
Wen Bin said that in the next stage, rising raw material prices and poor price transmission will still have an impact on enterprises. It is necessary to do a good job of inter-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement measures to ensure the supply of bulk commodities and stabilize prices, and to deal with coal, which has a greater contradiction between supply and demand. , Non-ferrous materials and other materials have increased their reserves, and further implemented the relief policy for small and medium-sized enterprises to help companies cope with the impact of rising raw material prices.