Scherbaum's stock exchange: It doesn't count to be afraid - or is it this time?

The general election will take place in a little over two weeks.

And as with every election, many investors who like to quote stock market wisdom refer to an old acquaintance: "Political stock exchanges have short legs" - which means that even such an important election will probably only have a short-term effect on the stock exchange prices in Dax & Co .

The background to this thesis is the assumption that in the end investors can only be influenced by company balance sheets and economic data in the long term. But is it really that easy (again) this time? The possible coalition constellations this year leave enough leeway for scenarios that investors should not like.

According to Marc Tüngler, managing director of the German Association for Protection of Securities (DSW), this federal election has direct and indirect consequences for investors. “Red-red-green would, for example, lead directly to an increase in the tax burden for investors,” said the shareholder protection officer, adding: “A red-red-green coalition would also significantly increase the pressure on companies, in terms of things Adding sustainability, which is certainly socially correct and desirable, but which will also cost the company a good return in the short and medium term. "

In his opinion, a look at the election manifestos quickly reveals “that actually only the FDP thinks in the direction of investors and shareholders.” In contrast, according to Tüngler, the CDU is “completely diffuse and, unfortunately, with no statements about investments and shareholders.” It sounds like that at various points in the CDU's electoral program, one or the other in terms of property or retirement provision, "but you can't really touch anything."

Possible consequences for investment strategy

The Berlin capital market expert Christian W. Röhl also sees the danger that this federal election could at least cast a long shadow - if the election result makes several coalitions possible and the formation of a government takes place until 2022. “After all, the stock market doesn't like uncertainty and the specter of a red-green-red alliance could frighten off foreign investors in particular,” but also says: “In the end, however, a government supported by at least two to a maximum of four of the five democratic factions should Being able to take up work - and the stock market could live with that for the time being. "

Robert Halver, capital market analyst at Baader Bank, is of the opinion that depending on the outcome of the election on September 26th, there could be far-reaching consequences for the investment strategy in Germany.

In recent years, many investors have farsightedly relied on real capital, i.e. stocks, real estate or gold.

"With their private provision, investors make themselves more independent of the statutory pension insurance, which is increasingly becoming a poor food." Absurdly, this personal responsibility, Halver continues, "is a thorn in the side of many ideologues on the left.

Although investors relieve the social security funds, they still want to be punished.

The speculation periods for real estate (ten years) as well as gold and crypto currencies (one year) are to be abolished. "

Certain stock sectors in focus

In the meantime, asset manager NN Investment Partners is assuming a three-party coalition as the base scenario for the coming federal government - "with a broad coalition agreement, a somewhat more progressive approach, a Europe-friendly orientation and moderately increasing spending in the coming years." Marco shows himself for the stock market itself Willner, the company's investment strategist, calmly. "On the equity side, the election results are only likely to have an effect in individual sectors, as German listed companies are internationally diversified."

One of the critical questions, however, is whether the Greens will push through an earlier coal exit if they participate in the government.

This could then put individual suppliers under pressure.

The construction and real estate sector is also a critical area: “While subsidies for home ownership and the abolition of the rent cap, as represented by the CDU / CSU, for example, support the business of real estate companies, demands from the left-wing camp, such as a more far-reaching one, are likely to arise Rent caps have a negative impact on business development, ”adds Willner.

A strong progressive bloc in the government could also revive the discussion about a transaction tax on financial transactions.

"This topic could weigh on financial stocks."

Investors should stay consistent

With all speculation about how the election will turn out, what should an investor do in the end if it comes to the "wrong result"?

One thing definitely not - say goodbye to long-term equity investments.

Because only with a state pension and a private Riester pension alone, retirement is likely to be financially troubled for most.

Private old-age provision cannot get around without the financial market, the stock exchange and thus the asset class stocks - even if the individual custody account positions could change.

“Green stocks, such as companies from the renewable energies sector, should continue to benefit under every new government, with strong greens probably a little more, with a strong union a little less.

And for residential real estate companies the air will certainly be a little thinner if the SPD and the Greens can make significant gains, "says Röhl.

Either way, German investors will be able to achieve good long-term returns on the stock market in the future - regardless of who will be in charge in Berlin in the future. Because in the end the said stock market wisdom with the short legs will endure this time too.