On Thursday, September 9, the exchange prices for gasoline in Russia fell to a minimum of two months.
Thus, the cost of AI-92 fuel at the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange decreased to 55.2 thousand rubles per ton, and AI-95 fuel fell to 58.3 thousand per ton.
The last time similar values could be observed at the beginning of July 2021.
According to the trading platform, wholesale gasoline prices in the country have been declining since the beginning of September.
At the same time, the cost of fuel at gas stations also dropped in the first week of the month.
According to Rosstat, from August 30 to September 6, the average retail price of AI-92 gasoline in Russia decreased by 0.37% - to 45.99 rubles per liter, and the cost of AI-95 fuel - dropped by 0.32% - to 49.82 rubles per liter.
In turn, a liter of diesel fuel fell 0.14% to RUB 50.62 per liter.
The decrease in gas station prices occurred for the first time since September 2020.
The observed dynamics is largely due to the increase in supply on the Russian fuel market, says Alexey Korenev, an analyst at FG Finam.
According to him, within the framework of agreements with the government, companies have increased fuel reserves and reduced fuel supplies abroad.
“Large producers understand that it is better to create the necessary stock on the market so as not to force the authorities to take tough measures, including, for example, a complete ban on the export of raw materials.
Even just statements about the possibility of applying such a measure already lead to the fact that large players increase the supply of fuel to domestic sites and slightly reduce sales abroad, "explained the interlocutor of RT.
According to an estimate by the Federal Customs Service (FCS), from January to July 2021, physical deliveries of automotive fuel from Russia abroad decreased by 24.1% compared to the same period in 2020.
At the same time, by the beginning of autumn, the country reduced gasoline exports to almost zero.
This was previously stated by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
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The supply of gasoline on the domestic market is also growing as a result of the completion of scheduled repair work at oil refineries.
Pyotr Pushkaryov, chief analyst of TeleTrade Group, spoke about this in a conversation with RT.
Moreover, according to him, with the onset of autumn in Russia, the seasonal demand for fuel began to decline, which also has a positive effect on prices.
“The active vacation period is over.
Due to the closure of many foreign tourism destinations, Russians used cars for recreation and travel to a greater extent than before.
The end of the summer reduced demand in this sector, ”explained Pushkarev.
According to the specialist, to a certain extent, the stabilization of world oil prices influenced the cheapening of gasoline.
Note that the raw materials of the Brent benchmark grade on the ICE exchange in London were confidently rising in price during the first half of 2021.
During this time, oil quotes rose by more than 40%, and in early July were very close to $ 78 per barrel.
However, after that, prices have corrected and since September have been fluctuating in the range of $ 72-74 per barrel.
“The current state of affairs reduces the incentives for companies to further increase fuel exports.
This is also one of the reasons why manufacturers have begun to more actively supply fuel to the domestic market of the country, "Pushkarev added.
Damper effect
According to Aleksey Korenev, the adjustment of the special compensating mechanism had a positive impact on the cost of gasoline in Russia.
Recall that in 2019, the so-called damper began to work on the country's fuel market.
Within the framework of this instrument, the state compensates oil companies for lost revenues when supplying fuel to the domestic market.
Thus, if the prices for fuel within the country are lower than export prices, oil workers receive compensation from the budget.
At higher prices on the domestic market, companies, on the other hand, transfer part of their profits to the treasury.
This avoids sudden jumps in the cost of fuel to consumers.
Due to the action of the damper, from 2019 to 2020, the rate of rise in the price of gasoline at Russian gas stations slowed down several times.
At the same time, since May 1, 2021, the authorities have made additional adjustments to the formula of the mechanism for containing prices at gas stations.
As a result, the diggers can now claim more compensation from the budget.
“Thanks to the new settings, the tool adjusts more flexibly and quickly to oil dynamics.
As a result, fuel prices are going down, ”said Korenev.
If the current conditions persist, experts interviewed by RT do not expect a significant increase in the cost of gasoline until the end of the year.
According to experts, the rate of rise in fuel prices will remain within inflation.
Moreover, prices at gas stations may still slightly decrease in the coming months - within the range of 0.7-1.2 rubles.
Artyom Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets, shared this assessment in a conversation with RT.
“By the end of the year, the overall inflation rate in Russia will be about 6-6.2%.
Within such a framework, fuel has already risen in price, and by the end of the year its cost may remain at the current level or slightly decrease, but not more than by 1%, ”concluded Deev.