Chinanews Client Beijing, September 9th (Reporter Xie Yiguan) On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August.

The industry predicts that the year-on-year increase in CPI in August may continue to decline slightly.

CPI ups and downs chart.

From the National Bureau of Statistics

August CPI rose or fell year-on-year

  Driven by the expansion of pork prices, in July, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.0% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

  According to the monitoring of the “National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System” of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the “Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index” in August 2021 was 113.60, an increase of 4.04 points from the previous month and a decrease of 5.99 points from the same period last year.

Among them, the average wholesale price of pork (white strip meat) was 21.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.9% from the previous month and a decrease of 55.7% from the same period last year.

  How will the CPI change in August? Many institutions predict that the year-on-year increase in CPI may decline slightly.

  "In the early stage, heavy rainfall in some areas had a certain upward impact on the prices of agricultural products. According to preliminary estimates, the prices of edible agricultural products in August increased by nearly 1% month-on-month, but they still fell year-on-year. The number of live pigs rose to a high level, and the supply of pork continued to increase, prompting Prices continue to fall." said Liu Xuezhi, a senior macro analyst at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center.

  "The price increase of primary industrial products is slowly transmitted to end consumer products, and the overall non-food prices tend to rise slightly. The CPI carry-over factor in August was 0%, which was 0.4 percentage points lower than that in July." Liu Xuezhi said, combining the above factors. , The year-on-year increase in CPI may have narrowed slightly, and is expected to be between 0.8% and 1%, with a median value of 0.9%, which is slightly lower than last month.

  However, some institutions believe that the CPI year-on-year or the same as last month.

Zhou Xi, an analyst at Bohai Securities, pointed out that in the midst of a fall in tail-end and a rebound in food prices, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in August is expected to remain at around 1.0%.

Data map: Consumers are buying pork in a supermarket in Taiyuan, Shanxi.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Yun

What will happen to the CPI year-on-year trend in the future?

  According to monitoring by the Ministry of Commerce, from August 30 to September 5, the national market price of edible agricultural products dropped by 0.7% from the previous week.

Among them, the average wholesale price of 30 kinds of vegetables was the same as the previous week; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits dropped slightly; the price of meat dropped slightly. The wholesale price of pork was 19.27 yuan per kilogram, down 2.8% from the previous week, and dropped to 10 yuan per catty again. the following.

  On September 1, Ma Youxiang, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, stated at a press conference that the production and supply of "vegetable basket" products such as pork, vegetables, and fruits is good this year. During the holiday season, the supply of agricultural products in my country is guaranteed, especially pork, which has recently fallen. Very quickly, and I hope everyone will take this opportunity to eat more pork and buy more pork.

  "The national live pig inventory is at a high level, and pork prices are expected to continue to run at a low level. It is difficult to significantly increase the CPI. Considering the poor transmission of PPI to the CPI, the price increase of subsistence remains at a low level, and the increase in non-food prices will be more moderate. After July The CPI tail-lifting factor is down.” Liu Xuezhi analyzed, therefore, the CPI will not have much pressure in the future, and the overall increase will remain moderate, and the increase may fluctuate around 1%.

  Huatai Securities macro analyst Liu Wenqi believes that the time when the food price base was the highest has passed, and with the support of the pork reserve policy, pork prices have basically stopped falling.

Therefore, in the second half of the year, food prices are expected to rebound year-on-year, and the drag on CPI will be significantly weakened.

At the same time, non-food CPI may rise to more than 2.5% in the second half of the year.

In a nutshell, the overall CPI trend is upwards.