Sino-Singapore Jingwei Client, September 6 (Wang Yongle) 24:00 on the 6th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened.
Many institutions predict that domestic oil prices will rise in this round of price adjustment cycles, which will be the 11th increase this year.
New latitude and longitude in the data map, photo by Zhang Meng
Since August 23, international oil prices have bottomed out.
On September 3, local time, US crude oil futures closed at US$69.29 per barrel, up 5.56% from August 23.
According to Jinlianchuang’s calculations, as of September 3, the ninth working day of the current price adjustment cycle, the average price of the reference crude oil product was US$71.30/barrel, and the rate of change was 3.55%. The corresponding retail price of domestic gasoline and diesel should be increased by 150 yuan. /Ton.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Shan said that the rate of change in this cycle has turned from negative to positive and maintained a positive range to deepen the trend. The increase in the retail price of refined oil in this round is "fixed".
According to analysis by Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, there are many factors influencing the continuous increase in the rate of change during the current price adjustment cycle.
For example, a fire on an oil platform of Petroleum Mexico reduced production by about 25%; the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed that the utilization rate of refinery capacity rose to 92.4%, the highest since the end of June, and US crude oil commercial inventories fell to 2020. The lowest since January 2008; Hurricane "Ada" caused 95.65% of crude oil production capacity (1.74 million barrels per day) in the Gulf of Mexico to close ahead of schedule; OPEC+ September meeting agreed to maintain its established policy of gradually increasing crude oil production unchanged.
Zhuo Chuang Information Refined Oil Analyst Wang Xueqin also said that during the current round of pricing cycle, crude oil prices have rebounded from a periodical low, driving the rate of change of crude oil from negative to positive and rising all the way within the positive range. This round of refined oil retail prices will increase. "Nothing goes wrong."
According to analysis by Wang Tao, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, under the news that the hurricane interfered with oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, US crude oil and Brent crude oil were sluggish, hitting new highs on a weekly basis, and finally locked in the upward tone of price adjustments.
On the ninth working day of this round, Zhongyu crude oil valuation of 69.744 was increased by 2.363 or 2.99% from the benchmark price, and the corresponding range of refined oil was 140 yuan/ton.
According to the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, the domestic refined oil prices have undergone 16 rounds of adjustments during the year, showing a pattern of "ten ups, three downs, and three strandeds". A total of 1,125 yuan/ton for gasoline and 1,080 yuan/ton for diesel .
If this round of increase is expected to materialize, it will be the 11th increase in oil prices this year.
The next round of price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on September 18, and institutions have different judgments on the direction of refined oil price adjustment.
Liu Bingjuan believes that the current bottom support of crude oil prices is still stable, but the overseas epidemic continues to put pressure on it, and it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments will likely be stranded.
Wang Tao analysis pointed out that in the short term, apart from paying attention to the recovery of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, the trend of the financial market has become a new focus. After the Fed's recent statement, the US dollar index has continued to weaken, and the performance of short-term US economic data may accelerate the flow of idle funds in the market. , To a certain extent, will support crude oil assets.
Based on a comprehensive judgment, there is still room for upside in crude oil futures prices in Europe and the United States in the next cycle. US crude oil may be measured at US$72 per barrel. The price adjustment of refined oil products on September 18 is likely to increase again.
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that the international crude oil prices in the next cycle will mainly fluctuate widely, and the rate of change of crude oil may start at a low level, and the market may have certain expectations of decline.
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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